Hard Chooks

I could talk for hours about how good the Roosters are one to 13, but their bench impresses me just as much. They’ve got Angus Crichton, who had his best game of the year last week in the preliminary final win over the Storm. Nat Butcher is a future rep player. Zane Tetevano is the unsung hero. And Siosiua Taukeiaho will go back on the bench, depending on what happens with hooker Jake Friend and his calf injury.

They have attacking threats all over the field and their left side - with Boyd Cordner, Latrell Mitchell and Daniel Tupou - is devastating. Around the ruck, they’ve got James Tedesco's speed and footwork. And the right side features Joey Manu's footwork and class.

The Raiders will have to be at their very best to beat them — because the Roosters won’t beat themselves.

How the Raiders can win

The Raiders need to break the Roosters’ rhythm. They need to make them feel uncomfortable. Whether that’s targeting a key man like Luke Keary or Cooper Cronk, or Friend if he plays, or just ambushing them as a team.

It’s a real fine line for coach Ricky Stuart: does he let them play up-tempo attack with a lot of risks?If it sticks, they will trouble the Roosters. If it doesn’t, they’re in danger.

I’m expecting Canberra to blast through the Roosters’ middles, through prop Josh Papalii — the best forward in the competition this year — and lock Joseph Tapine. Both players have footwork and power but the big thing is they have a late offload.

There are three options if they get the offload away.

First, they can stay close to the ruck with fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, who can get around tired forwards with his footwork. Or they can move the ball to the right and get it to John Bateman or BJ Leilua, encouraging them to step, pirouette or spin to scatter the defence. Or they can use Elliott Whitehead on the left. He has some X-factor, too.

Meanwhile, Raiders halfback Aidan Sezer needs to be the calming influence. While everyone else is going crazy, he has to stay cool. He needs to organise and be loud. Players take comfort in a dominant voice from the halfback. He needs to think ‘kick’. ‘What’s my next kick?’ That’s his role in the first 20 minutes.

Player to watch

The biggest compliment I can give Josh Hodgson is he comes from the same mould as Cameron Smith. He’s a halfback that plays out of dummy half.

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His toughness in the preliminary final win against Souths was incredible. Some of his tackles and big plays were crucial. Much has been made about him not going off for an HIA, but he got bumped, got up and played on. Next set of six, he raked the ball out of Cody Walker’s hand and saved a try.

He has been here since 2015 but, before then, I hadn’t really heard of him, even though I follow the Super League closely. I knew his name but didn’t appreciate how good a player he was. Now he's one of the best in the comp.

Last year he was injured for some time but in his return match, against the Wests Tigers, he was the architect of a 48-12 win. It was a masterclass.

Similar to something Smith would do.

The verdict

Each side has key players who can swing the game.

For the Roosters, it is Tupou: he’s lethal in the air. Tedesco: wherever he is, the ball will go to that area. And Jared Waerea-Hargreaves: his aggression in the middle gets the Roosters going.

For the Raiders, it’s Papalii: running different angles at the ruck, bringing his footwork and bumper bars into play. He’s a waist tackle, you can’t go high on him. Hodgson: a big threat off any quick play-the-ball. If the markers feel isolated, they need to fade back into the defensive line. Nick Cotric and Jordan Rapana: their dummy half running can be lethal.

I’m tipping a classic. Like all big games, it will come down to the first and last 20 minutes, with the Roosters pulling away late.

JOEY’S TIP: Roosters by 6.

FIRST TRY-SCORER: Boyd Cordner.

MAN OF THE MATCH: Boyd Cordner.