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Exactly 50 years ago, Victoria's transport minister Vernon Wilcox issued a dire warning.
Key points:
- A detailed and comprehensive transport plan for Melbourne was released in December 1969
- The plan focused on roads, and has shaped development in recent decades
- Experts say public transport needs to be the focus of future planning
"Melbourne is involved in the urban population explosion," he said.
At the time, greater Melbourne had a population of about 1.9 million, which was projected to grow to 3.6 million by 1985.
The late Mr Wilcox feared roads would be clogged with traffic and Melbourne's train and tram network would struggle to support growing passenger numbers.
The city has now hit the 5 million mark, and could reach 8 million by 2050.
Mr Wilcox, a Liberal MP, compiled a plan to fix Melbourne's future woes with other Victorian leaders, transport bosses and American consultants.
"This is not a situation in which we can stand by and simply 'wring our hands'," Mr Wilcox wrote.
What was in the plan?
The crown jewel in the 1969 Melbourne Transportation Study was an extensive grid of freeways, some eight lanes wide.
While the plan also included rail, tram and parking upgrades, about 85 per cent of the proposed $2.6 billion project costs were allocated for roads.
"Freeway-to-freeway interchanges" were proposed to allow motorists to stay on quicker roads, instead of diverting onto arterial roads.
An underground city rail loop was also proposed, along with a train line to East Doncaster, a Rowville line passing through Monash University and a route connecting Dandenong and Frankston.
There were also plans to expand the tram network, and the possibility of shifting CBD trams on Swanston Street underground was hinted at.
What was built?
Many of the proposed freeways, inner-city bypasses and ring roads were built in the decades that followed the transport plan.
The Monash, Eastern, Tullamarine, Calder and West Gate freeways were constructed, along with Citylink, the Western Ring Road and Eastlink.
The underground rail loop, now known as City Loop, was also built. Smaller rail upgrades occurred, but the Doncaster and Rowville rail projects never eventuated.
Fifty years on, it's perhaps not a surprise that cars remain king when it comes to Melburnians' daily commute. Well over 50 per cent of the working population drives to work, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
But travel times have not improved, as hoped. Melbourne's average traffic speeds have plummeted in recent years, and congestion has become worse.
Melbourne's trains are also overcrowded. Six per cent of AM services and 7 per cent of PM services carried more than the standard capacity benchmark of 900 passengers in May, according to Department of Transport figures.
Swinburne University urban design lecturer Ian Woodcock said a major flaw in the 1969 plan was its over-reliance on roads.
"Building more roads only induces more traffic," Dr Woodcock said.
"If you want to be moving people more sustainably, we should be building more public transport and shifting people out of their cars.
"There were new routes in the western suburbs that would have been good to have. The western suburbs are notoriously poorly served by public transport."
What's in the pipeline?
Roads continue to dominate Victoria's infrastructure plans, dubbed the "Big Build" by the State Government.
The Government is pressing ahead with the $16 billion North East Link, connecting Greensborough and Bulleen, despite concerns from an independent advisory group.
The West Gate Tunnel, expected to open in 2022, will serve as a second option between the city and western suburbs.
A further $2.2 billion has been invested to improve roads in the city's northern and south-eastern outer suburbs.
Mr Andrews' signature rail project, the $11 billion Metro Tunnel, will link the Sunbury and Pakenham/Cranbourne lines and include new stations in the CBD.
That project, due to be complete by 2025, ground to a halt this week amid tensions between the builder and the Government over deadlines and cost blowouts.
A business case is being developed for a train line from the western suburbs to Melbourne airport.
Meanwhile, a plan to remove 75 railway level crossings is now two-thirds complete.
Transport decisions being made 'on a whim'
While plenty of work is being undertaken, Dr Woodcock believes the bigger picture is being ignored by politicians.
"What we have is a whole bunch of projects competing for everyone's attention," he said.
"They're not being put in a context of a 2019 version of the 1969 plan."
RMIT urban planning expert Andrew Butt also bemoaned the lack of a grander vision for the city's transport system.
"We're in an era now where a lot of the transport decisions seem to be made because of a political mandate, on a whim," he told ABC Radio Melbourne.
"We should think about what sort of city we want it to be, not just where things are headed."
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