The Reserve Bank has left interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.1 per cent, maintaining its commitment to supporting the economy through unprecedented stimulus.
Key points:
- RBA reaffirms its belief that official interest rates will not rise for at least three years
- Analysts warn that market interest rates appear to have permanently risen from their lows and mortgage rates have likely bottomed
- RBA says it is prepared to expand its $200 billion bond buying program to keep market interest rates low
Interest rates have been at 0.1 per cent since the Reserve Bank last cut in November, when it also embarked on a form of quantitative easing by committing to buy $100 billion of Australian federal and state government bonds, an amount it doubled at last month's meeting.
Central banks have, over the past few weeks in particular, been confronted by a surge in bond sales, which has pushed up the interest rates on government debt.
This risks pushing up interest rates across the economy more broadly, even as central banks try and hold them lower.
The Commonwealth Bank's head of fixed income and currency strategy Martin Whetton said the market moves risked increasing home loan interest rates, even if the Reserve Bank kept the official cash rate on hold.
"Part of the level of those is determined by market rate," he told The Business.
While a bigger bond purchase than usual from the RBA yesterday helped lower bond-market interest rates from their recent highs, Mr Whetton said it was unlikely that rates would continue falling.
"There is a trend higher, the lows have been seen, and the market will look at any good economic outlook to push rates higher over the longer term," he added.
RBA 'prepared to do more if necessary'
However, in his post-meeting statement, RBA governor Philip Lowe said the bank would not allow the interest rates on government debt to rise beyond its comfort zone.
"The bank is prepared to make further adjustments to its purchases in response to market conditions," he warned traders.
"To date, a cumulative $74 billion of government bonds issued by the Australian government and the states and territories have been purchased under the initial $100 billion program.
Some analysts, such as Marcel Theliant from Capital Economics, are expecting the RBA to buy even more bonds later this year.
He is tipping that a further $100 billion extension to the program will be announced, possibly in June.
"If we are right, the bank will own around a third of outstanding federal bonds (AGS) by the end of the year," he wrote in a note.
"Other central banks have expressed concern about the functioning of the bond market when their holdings reached similar proportions and we suspect the RBA will do so as well.
"With the economic recovery set to keep surprising to the upside, we think QE will be abandoned by year-end."
As for the official cash rate, Mr Lowe reaffirmed the bank's view that it would not rise for at least the next three years.
"The board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range," he noted.
"For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market.
"The board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest."