Two Sunday games are set to decide how many clubs head into the final round with a chance of playing finals.

Plus after the Bulldogs’ shock stumble, here’s where the top four race sits.

Before a full look at the Run Home on Sunday night, here’s a quick update on the chase for the eight.

Watch The 2021 Toyota AFL Premiership Season Live & On-Demand on Kayo. New to Kayo? Try 14-Days Free Now >

RACE FOR THE TOP FOUR

1. Geelong Cats (64 pts, 128.6%)

2. Port Adelaide (64 pts, 127.3%)

3. Melbourne* (62 pts, 130.7%)

4. Western Bulldogs (60 pts, 134.5%)

5. Brisbane Lions (56 pts, 132.7%)

6. Sydney Swans (56 pts, 115.1%)

Yet to play: Melbourne v Adelaide, MCG, Sunday 2:10pm EST

The Cats, Power and Demons are locked into the top four - with Melbourne able to move back on top if they knock off Adelaide on Sunday. All three can still win the minor premiership.

But the Bulldogs’ shock loss to Hawthorn has opened things up for the Lions to steal the double chance, while the Swans are merely a mathematical chance of finishing fourth.

If the Bulldogs can beat Port Adelaide next week they’ll finish in the top two, but if they lose, Brisbane needs to beat West Coast and make up percentage to pass them.

Brisbane’s massive win over Collingwood means the percentage gap is only worth around five goals of margin; so if the Dogs lose by three goals and the Lions win by three goals, they would swap positions.

The Bulldogs can no longer claim the club’s first minor premiership, because at least one of Melbourne or Geelong will finish ahead of them.

RACE FOR SEVENTH AND EIGHTH

7. GWS Giants (42 pts, 98.9%)

8. West Coast Eagles* (40 pts, 95.5%)

9. Essendon* (36 pts, 103.4%)

10. Richmond (36 pts, 97.8%)

11. St Kilda (36 pts, 88%)

12. Fremantle* (36 pts, 87.7%)

Yet to play: Gold Coast v Essendon, GMHBA, Sunday 3:20pm EST and Fremantle v West Coast, Optus, Sunday 5:10pm EST

By Sunday evening, the top eight could be locked, or there could still be six teams chasing the last two spots; it’s that close.

If the Eagles beat the Dockers and the Suns beat the Bombers, then the Giants and West Coast will be guaranteed of finishing seventh and eighth, with the order to be determined in Round 23.

If the Eagles beat the Dockers but the Bombers beat the Suns, then it’ll be a three-team race between GWS, West Coast and Essendon for the last two spots in the finals. The Bombers (vs Collingwood), with a win, would be able to catch either the Giants (vs Carlton) or Eagles (vs Brisbane) if they lose in Round 23.

The hopes of the Tigers, Saints and Fremantle rely on the men in purple winning the Western Derby for the first time since 2015.

If the Dockers can win, they’ll be level on 40 points with the Eagles and could pass their rivals if they beat St Kilda in Round 23. Justin Longmuir’s side also needs Essendon to lose at least once.

Realistically Richmond and St Kilda are long shots to make it (because of percentage) unless Gold Coast beats Essendon. If that happens, the Tigers have a chance of sneaking into eighth if the Bombers, Eagles and Dockers all lose in Round 23.