The Taliban's seizure of control in Afghanistan happened so quickly that many major global powers have been left scrambling to get out of the country.

But not China.

Its embassy in Kabul is still functioning normally while Chinese business are being urged to explore opportunities in the country.

Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen told China's state-run national broadcaster CGTN that China could "play an important role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan".

It's unsurprising the Taliban is looking to the East for investment given the war-torn country may face new sanctions from the G7.

But Dr Rodger Shanahan from the Lowy Institute has warned, "investing too much in Afghanistan has significant risks".

Chinese investment on the rise in Afghanistan

According to Afghanistan's National Statistic and Information Authority, the country's top three trading partners are Iran, Pakistan, and China.

Between 2019 and 2020, the value of Afghanistan's exports to China were $US55.3 million ($77.2 million), while the country's imports totalled $US986.5 million ($1.37 billion).

Although bilateral trade is small, China's direct investment in Afghanistan increased by more than 11 per cent in 2020.

China's Centre for International Economic Exchange, governed by the National Development and Reform Commission, has stressed that now is the best time for Chinese enterprises to enter Afghanistan.

Notably, the National Development and Reform Commission is commonly known as China's "mini-State Council" — the State Council has extensive influence on strategic planning for the country's economy.

Minerals may be one industry on China's radar.

Afghan mineral resources difficult to extract

In 2010, a US report estimated Afghanistan had mineral deposits worth $US1 trillion ($1.38 trillion), while the then-Afghan mines minister estimated it was three times higher.

But Professor Gu Xuewu, director of the Center for Global Studies at the University of Bonn in Germany, said he didn't believe Afghanistan's natural resources would be Beijing's main motive to invest in the country.

"It is more costly to extract resources here than from other regions," he said.

Raffaello Pantucci, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in the UK, told the ABC that Chinese firms were interested in Afghanistan's natural resources, but these were difficult projects to undertake.

"[The Taliban] may have very limited experience in working on such projects," he said.

"[It] would require a considerable volume of ancillary infrastructure in difficult environments before the extraction of resources could actually take place."

Potential for infrastructure development

According to the Chinese embassy in Kabul, apart from mining, Chinese investments were focused on infrastructure development, such as telecommunications and road construction.

"Providing an overall new infrastructure system for Afghanistan — from highways to telecommunication, from hospital to schools — would strengthen China's influence in the country and beyond."

But Mr Pantucci said most investment from China was not made directly.

He said China had gifted some university buildings, housing and hospitals to the country, but "Chinese state policy banks have not provided anything, nor has China provided much by way of infrastructure aid".

"[It] has mostly been done by Chinese firms operating under contract to international financial institutions like the World Bank, IMF and Asian Development Bank.

"Chinese state investment or aid for infrastructure could come in more now, but it seems unlikely given the likely continued instability in Afghanistan and the fact that more generally Chinese policy institutions are under greater pressure to ensure return on investment on their projects."

Extending the Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is seen as a potential alternative way to channel Chinese investment into Afghanistan.

A key pilot project of the BRI — the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — is currently being built close to the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Professor Gu said Beijing had made no secret of its plan to extend the CPEC to Afghanistan.

Mr Pantucci said a key purpose of CPEC infrastructure was to help local communities around the Afghanistan-Pakistan border develop.

But the plan to further include Afghanistan had been facing pushback, "mostly from Pakistan", he said.

"[Pakistan] is worried it might distract [China's] investments in its own country."

'Money is fond of peace, not war'

Data from China's Ministry of Commerce showed that the newly-signed project contracts in Afghanistan by Chinese firms in 2020 were worth $US110 million ($153 million).

But the majority of them had not yet gone anywhere. 

"The safety of the target country is a necessary consideration for China's outbound investment," said Professor Fan Hongda, a Middle East expert at Shanghai International Studies University.

"The failure to achieve safety and stability under the previous US-backed government is the fundamental reason for limiting Chinese investment in the country."

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With former vice-president Amrullah Saleh announcing he had joined a resistance group vowing to fight against the new regime, stability in Afghanistan appears to still be some way off.

Mr Pantucci said there needed to be a lot of progress in Afghanistan before there would be significant investment from China.

"Although Chinese firms tend to have a higher risk threshold than others, Afghanistan is still a difficult country to work in," he said.

"China has had citizens killed trying to do projects there."

Professor Gu concludes: "No investors are interested in putting their money in a country that has been plagued by wars between foreign forces and internal rivals."

"Money is fond of peace, not war."