In 2023-24 NBN Co expects to generate revenue of $6.2 billion ($4.5 billion last financial year, $4.5 billion of EBITDA ($1.3 billion) and incur a loss of “only” $900 million ($4 billion loss) that will put it on the verge of profitability.

It was always envisaged, when the NBN Co rollout strategy changed from Labor’s all fibre-to-the-premises to Malcolm Turnbull’s multi-technology mix, that the NBN would be progressively upgraded and more fibre introduced as demand for higher speeds increased and NBN Co’s capacity to fund new investment improved.

The strategy, which ensured a far speedier rollout, was vindicated when the pandemic struck and, as work and education shifted from workplaces and schools to the home, the demand on the network and the demand for higher speed plans soared.

Even if we achieve something approaching ‘COVID normal,” it is improbable that demand will return to its pre-COVID trajectory.

NBN Co says that at the start of the pandemic there were estimates that about 30 per cent of the Australian workforce could feasibly work from home. Post COVID, it says, it is expected that remote work will become 80 per cent more common in a wide range of industries.

The drift from cities to regions and the evolution of the nascent telehealth and education sectors have also been accelerated by the pandemic, enhancing and shifting demand for broadband.

In line with the government’s expectations and NBN Co’s financial imperatives the higher speeds and indeed the spending on network upgrades will be largely demand and return-on-investment driven.

Peak demand of 346GB was experienced in April this year. By 2029, NBN Co forecasts, it will be more than 1000GB a month.

By bringing forward the increases in demand that might otherwise have been expected in some years’ time and changing the way the network is used, the pandemic necessitated the additional large-scale investment in the network NBN Co has committed to.

That investment will push more fibre into the network and bring fibre closer to more premises but doesn’t mean NBN Co is abandoning the multi-technology mix.

The much-derided HFC network, for instance (a network that would have been closed for broadband usage under Labor’s original plan but which now serves about 2.5 million premises), can already deliver download speeds of up to 250 Mbps and there are prospective upgrade technologies that could increase them towards 1 GB.

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In line with the government’s expectations and NBN Co’s financial imperatives the higher speeds and indeed the spending on network upgrades will be largely demand and return-on-investment driven.

The extra billions aren’t being invested on a “build it and they will come” premise, which underscores how different this next phase of NBN Co’s existence will be to the decade of the initial rollout. It is now investing, not just to provide increasingly critical public infrastructure, but for commercial returns.