While clubs will soon hit the trade table, the national draft set to be held later in the year is also front of mind.

The ‘fab four’, the future trade hurdles, the tricky new rule and the clubs who could do the most damage come November.

Foxfooty.com.au analyses the state of play on the 2021 AFL draft.

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HOW DOES THIS TALENT POOL STACK UP – AND WHO ARE SOME OF THE TOP PROSPECTS?

Despite so many prospects’ seasons being interrupted by Covid-enforced pauses, clubs are genuinely excited by this year’s pool and the evenness across potentially three rounds.

Six of the young guns taken within the first 10 picks of last year’s national draft were key-position prospects. This year, however, it’s more of a hybrid draft, with the top of the pool to almost certainly feature more on-ballers, small forwards and rebound defenders.

There are four clear standouts — a ‘fab four’, if you like. Star Collingwood father-son candidate Nick Daicos and South Adelaide midfielder Jason Horne-Francis have been ranked in the top two from start to finish this year, while Bulldogs father-son prospect Sam Darcy and Sandringham Dragons on-baller Finn Callaghan have moved into top-five contention as their excellent 2021 campaigns have progressed.

From there, some recruiters believe you could “throw a blanket” over as many as 50 players, such is the evenness of the players on offer.

Others say there’s a peloton of four to six players chasing the top four. GWV Rebels defender Josh Gibcus and versatile Dandenong Stingrays ruckman Mac Andrew have roared into top-10 calculations, while GWV inside midfielder Ben Hobbs and Northern Knights ball magnet Josh Ward are also in the top-10 mix.

WA should also be well represented in the first round.

Subiaco midfielder Neil Erasmus is his state’s leading prospect at this stage, while teammate Matthew Johnson is also in the first-round mix after playing in all three WAFL grades this season. East Perth’s Jye Amiss is arguably the best key forward in the open draft after booting a WAFL colts season-high 51 goals — and just 14 behinds. He’d be perfect for Essendon at Pick 11, but he might be off the board by then.

Murray Bushrangers half-forward Josh Rachele looms as one of the most fascinating prospects. Uber talented, confident and electric around goal, the 180cm goalsneak is one of the most exciting players in this year’s pool. But recruiters are also wary of taking a punt on a small forward so early in the order.

Some prospects, like Eastern Ranges’ Tyler Sonsie, Sandringham’s Josh Sinn and Northern Knights’ Campbell Chesser, possess talent that’s worthy of being taken in the top 10, but a lack of continuity this year – either due to injury and Covid-enforced interruptions – might see them taken later in the first round.

WHICH CLUBS WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY IN THE DRAFT?

There’s a lot of recruiters jealous of Richmond’s draft hand – and rightly so.

Compared to the past five years, the Tigers are now in unfamiliar territory. Not only did they miss finals this year, they have a stacked draft hand that includes two picks in each of the first, second and third rounds – and that’s before any possible trade involving Callum Coleman-Jones. As it stands, that’s Picks 7, 15, 26, 28, 40 and 44.

It gives Richmond ample scope at the trade table to add players to a list still seen by experts as flag contenders next year. At the same time, it’s a golden chance for the Tigers to add top-end talent via the draft.

If they went down the path of the latter, they’d then have the option of packaging up those selections and offering them to a rival club in a bid to move up the draft order.

Two other clubs hold multiple first-round picks: The Giants (Picks 2 and 13) and Brisbane (Picks 14 and either 17 or 18, depending on whether Melbourne wins the flag or not). Gold Coast holds Pick 3 and Pick 19 – the latter pick being a start-of-second-round selection that was handed to them by the AFL in 2019 as part of an assistance package.

Rival clubs are optimistic both the Lions and Suns would be open to offloading their first-round picks for the appropriate deal.

After all, following 11 top-11 picks from the past five drafts, do the Suns really need to use another top-10 pick on a draftee? Suns chairman Tony Cochrane told On The Couch in June there was “no point loading us up with more young kids … we need some senior people”. With one first-rounder and two early second-rounders, the Suns are well placed to make a play for established players at the trade table.

The Giants, too, could be open to offers. A few rival clubs arguably want those early picks more than the Giants as their list doesn’t have too many holes. Conversely, it’d be hard for the Giants to give up such a terrific selection, especially after a bold trade on draft night last year essentially gained them a free first-round selection.

The other club that could have two first-rounders by this year’s draft is Fremantle. In fact the Dockers will be fighting hard to ensure they have at least two first-rounders.

While the Dockers currently hold Pick 8, they’ll inevitably be demanding a top-10 pick from the club outgoing midfielder Adam Cerra eventually nominates, which is widely expected to be Carlton. The Blues hold Pick 6 and are willing and able to trade that selection to the Dockers in order to land Cerra, although they could also find a rival club to split that first round pick.

The biggest dark horse, though, could be Adelaide.

Prior to Round 23, the Crows held Pick 2. But after its comprehensive win over North Melbourne, they slipped down to Pick 4.

Outside of Daicos – who the Pies will clearly match a bid on, no matter where that rival club bid comes – Horne-Francis is the best player in this year’s draft. And he’s a South Australian product that is not only powerful at the contest but also classy by foot on the outside. He’d be an ideal selection for Adelaide.

So would the Crows trade up the draft order to Pick 1 in order to give them first access to Horne? Rival clubs believe the Crows haven’t ruled a play like that out yet and would be in a decent bargaining position to do so. But whether North Melbourne — a club that’s in the early stages of its rebuild — would be willing to budge remains doubtful as Pick 1 is rarely – and genuinely – on the trade table.

ARE THERE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS YEAR’S DRAFT?

Yes – and Melbourne could feel the impact the most.

The Western Bulldogs last year were forced to match a bid by Adelaide on Next Generation Academy (NGA) prospect Jamarra Ugle-Hagan at Pick 1. That, however, can’t happen with NGA players this year.

The AFL has changed the in-draft NGA bidding rules for 2021, with clubs with existing links to multicultural and Indigenous Academy players unable to match bids inside the top 20 selections. They’ll be able to match, as per previous seasons, from Pick 21 onwards though.

The rule tweak, however, is unlikely to work in the Demons’ favour, as their top NGA prospect Mac Andrew has surged into top-10 calculations throughout the year.

Excluding his NAB League match where he got injured, Andrew averaged 15.2 disposals from his five games – the most of any ruckman – according to Champion Data. His hit-out-to-advantage rate of 18.1 per cent was also ranked fourth among the NAB League’s top 50 ruckmen for ruck contests.

While Andrew is raw and will have to put on size when he lands at an AFL club, one recruiter told foxfooty.com.au there’s “no chance” he’s slipping outside of the top 20, especially after his performance in a Vic Metro trial game at Windy Hill earlier this year.

St Kilda could also be affected by the change as it has two NGA players — midfield duo Mitchito Owens and Marcus Windhager — that will be pushing the top 20.

HOW BIG AN IMPACT HAS ANOTHER COVID-INTERRUPTED SEASON HAD ON PROSPECTS?

Last year’s draft class, especially Victorian-based players, had close to a full year where their AFL preparations were disrupted.

But spare a thought for a fair portion of this year’s class, which has now had two full stop-start seasons where they haven’t been able to build confidence and show off their talent.

Victorian-based players, who dominated the Under 16s national carnival in 2019, have played nowhere near as many games compared to their South Australian and Western Australian-based counterparts over the past two years. For instance, Champion Data captured 20 games involving Horne-Francis this year, compared to seven in which Daicos featured.

Some clubs told foxfooty.com.au they saw enough from Victorian prospects earlier in the year to help them make a reasonably sound judgment come draft night. Others are concerned some of the young mend will enter the draft – then their AFL clubs – underdone.

On the flipside, club list bosses and recruiters, who are primarily based in Victoria, haven’t been able to travel interstate as much compared to past years to watch players live at grounds. While vision is easily accessible, seeing a prospect live is often a much better guide, as you can pick up key details like running patterns, workrate and attitude.

Ultimately come draft night, clubs could lean towards a player it’s seen live more often compared to a prospect of similar ability it’s seen more on tape.

A crucial part of the process for recruiters is the interview process. An easing of restrictions in Victoria allowed a portion of prospect-club interviews to take place at home at the start of the season.

But like most around the world, chats between clubs and players over the past two years have predominantly been conducted via video chats. It means recruiters haven’t been able to truly see and grasp how players handle an in-person interview and pick up key details, such as how they interact with family members and how anxious or fidgety they might be when answering certain questions.

WHAT ABOUT THE 2022 DRAFT CLASS?

There’s been a great sense of unknown around the 2020 and 2021 AFL draft prospects over recent seasons. But the 2022 crop has been hit just as hard, which will impact how clubs trade over the coming months.

The 2020 Under 16 national championships were cancelled due to the pandemic. Add in a disruptive 2021 campaign and it’s tough for recruiters to truly evaluate the 2022 crop and, consequently, the value of 2022 draft picks.

While we’re still 14 months away from next year’s draft, that uncertainty means clubs could be hesitant to trade out of this year’s draft, or more determined to trade back into it.

It’s just another conundrum for clubs to deal with across a two-year period that’s been full of puzzles to solve.