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Posted: 2021-10-01 00:00:41

Home prices have continued their recent surge, rising more than 20 per cent over the past year in the biggest annual boom since 1989.

Regional areas continued to lead cities, with prices up 1.7 per cent over the past month and 23.1 per cent over the last year, versus 1.5 and 19.5 per cent gains for the capitals over those respective periods.

However, CoreLogic noted signs that a little heat is starting to come out of the property market.

From a peak national monthly growth rate of 2.8 per cent in March, property prices rose 1.5 per cent last month.

CoreLogic's head of research Eliza Owen said this was typical of the latter stages of a housing upswing.

CoreLogic's head of research Eliza Owen stands outside on a street.
CoreLogic's head of research Eliza Owen says affordability constraints are starting to bite after a year of big price rises.(

ABC News: John Gunn

)

"The growth rate has peaked, and it's clear that now affordability constraints, or even just willingness to pay, is starting to slow those appreciation rates down," she told the ABC's Close of Business program.

Ms Owen said that first home buyers had been particularly affected as prices soared.

"First home buyer loans have actually fallen by over 20 per cent since the start of this year," she observed.

That has resulted in existing owners taking over as the main drivers of the property market.

"At the moment, the dominant participant in the market are the owner-occupier changeover buyers – in other words, people who are upsizing, downsizing, moving somewhere else," she added.

CoreLogic's research director Tim Lawless said the deposit hurdle has now become extremely high for first home buyers in the most expensive markets.

"Sydney is a prime example where the median house value is now just over $1.3 million," he noted.

"In order to raise a 20 per cent deposit, the typical Sydney house buyer would need around $262,300."

First home buyers turning to 'rent vesting'

Mr Lawless said lending data appeared to show that some first home buyers were responding to the surging prices by turning to property investment as a way to get a foothold in the market.

"The slowdown in first home buyers can be seen in the lending data, where the number of owner-occupier first home buyer loans has fallen by -20.5 per cent between January and July," he noted.

"Over the same period, the number of first home buyers taking out an investment housing loan has increased, albeit from a low base, by 45 per cent, suggesting more first home buyers are choosing to 'rent vest' as a way of getting their foot in the door."

However, overall, the number of investors in the market was not yet at boom levels.

""We have also seen a significant rise in investor participation over the past few months, but proportionally they're still only sitting at about 29 per cent of mortgage finance, down from a decade average of about 35 per cent," Ms Owen added.

Regulators and the Treasurer have indicated that restrictions on large home loans may soon be on the way, potentially capping the number of loans that are more than six times the borrower's income.

However, it appears unlikely that any new rules will take effect for at least another couple of months.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said that was likely to be reflected in slower price gains for real estate during 2022.

"Dwelling price gains are expected to slow next year reflecting deteriorating affordability, APRA macroprudential moves to slow lending growth which look likely from later this year, a possible return in listings to more normal levels, a rotation in consumer spending back towards services as reopening occurs which may reduce housing demand, a resumption of rising bond yields and hence fixed [mortgage] rates and a likely shift from years of housing undersupply to oversupply as a result of strong levels of home building but two years of zero immigration," he forecast.

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