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Posted: 2021-10-25 03:42:45

Lockdown-fatigued buyers wanting to escape the city are pushing up house prices on the Sunshine and Gold coasts which are forecast to overtake Brisbane prices within three years.

The Australian Housing Outlook report from BIS Oxford Economics has found that while there was a slight downturn in the property market in early 2020 as concerns grew during an emerging pandemic, it had proven "remarkably resilient" since.

For Queensland, which largely skipped the lockdown lethargy forced on Victoria and New South Wales, it meant a rush of interstate arrivals.

The report found that while Brisbane's market is "set to get even stronger", it would not keep up with the interstate demand for houses on the Gold and Sunshine coasts.

Two male passengers wheeling suitcases in an airport terminal.
Melbourne Airport was quiet during lockdowns, but Victorians are still buying houses on the Sunshine and Gold coasts "virtually".(ABC News: Danielle Bonica)

The average house price in Brisbane is due to reach $806,000 by 2024 — a three-year increase of 18 per cent.

"Brisbane will remain relatively affordable when compared to Sydney or Melbourne," the report said.

It also found that the flow of interstate arrivals would help the Queensland capital "prevent a sharp slowdown in momentum" before 2024.

The figures suggest the median house price on the Sunshine Coast would go up by almost 19 per cent, from $830,000 today to $986,000 by mid-2024, as more remote workers fled "crowded inner-city areas".

The Gold Coast's median house price was forecast to rise from $815,000 to $915,000 three years later.

Average house prices in Toowoomba, Cairns, and Townsville are all predicted to increase.

View across the water with surfers in the foreground paddling and the highrises of Surfers Paradiose in the background
The beautiful beaches of the Gold Coast are enticing out-of-state house buyers.(ABC Gold Coast: Dominic Cansdale)

Sunshine Coast real estate agent Rebecca Capper said forecasts of the regions outpricing the Brisbane housing market soon were realistic.

"The market has definitely shifted very, very strongly in the last six months in particular."

A woman with blond hair posing with her hand on her hip
Real estate agent Rebecca Capper says half of their sales inquiries are from interstate buyers.(Supplied: Coronis Group)

Ms Capper said demand was expected to surge further when borders reopened in December, despite lockdowns ceasing in Victoria and New South Wales.

"We're finding it still very strong at the moment," she said.

"We are expecting that once the borders do open that that increase will happen quite dramatically, obviously, because it's also at Christmas time."

Some real estate agents in the region have reported spending up to two hours a day on the phone to interstate buyers.

"Half of our inquiries are coming from down south," Ms Capper said.

"It's all done virtually, so a lot of our conversations are done by FaceTime and video walkthrough.

"It gives them enough satisfaction that they can put an offer and a contract on the property."

Boom crushing renters, budget buyers

For those already battling to buy a house or cope with rising rents, the report has found little relief on the horizon.

St Vincent De Paul's John Harrison works with those facing the crushing weight of the booming property market in Noosa and across the Sunshine Coast.

He said some struggle for as long as they can — maybe even taking on boarders or sub-tenants — before being forced out of town.

"Where rent used to be $600 a week it's now $800 or more, and some people are paying much more than that," he said.

Man stand in front of shelves of canned food
John Harrison says high-demand areas are forcing renters and buyers on a budget out of town.(ABC Sunshine Coast: Meg Bolton)

He said some will consider leaving their home town, where their family may have lived for generations, only to struggle to find a rental home elsewhere.

"If you look along the east coast seaboard there's no vacancy rates above 1 per cent," he said.

"It will ripple out because people are having to move further north, but it'll catch up.

"Families that used to come don't seem to be around anymore. I think quite a few people have moved further north."

House on the Sunshine Coast with yellow Leased sign out front
Much of regional Queensland has a rental vacancy rate of less than 1 per cent.(ABC Sunshine Coast: Bianca Clare)

Mr Harrison said he wished luck on those benefiting from the exploding property prices, but feared for what comes next.

"What hope is there for the next generation?" he said.

"It'll ripple out everywhere — a million [dollar housing] will be commonplace everywhere.

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