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Posted: 2021-11-24 13:02:15

Household power bills are predicted to continue falling in the coming years, despite the closure of major power stations including Liddell power station in New South Wales.

A new report by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) says the impact of the closures will be largely offset by decreasing wholesale and environmental costs as more renewable energy comes online across Australia.

It forecasts an average national drop in annual bills of $77 by 2024.

AEMC chair Anna Collyer said power bills were expected to rise slightly, by about $20 in 2022/23, as Liddell closed down.

"Prices are expected to … fall again as lost capacity is replaced by a combination of solar, wind, gas and batteries," Ms Collyer said.

"While we have just under 2,500 megawatts (MW) of generation expected to exit the grid over the next three years, there are almost 5,500MW of committed new large-scale generation and storage projects coming online over the same time period.

Queensland leading the nation

South-east Queensland is predicted to see the biggest price drop, with annual bills falling by 10 per cent ($126) by 2024, to reach their lowest level in more than a decade.

A headshot of a woman with short brown hair, wearing a black suit, smiling at the camera
"Integrating renewables in a smart way makes it possible to have both lower emissions and lower costs," Anna Collyer says.(Supplied: AEMC)

The report predicts the price falls will be driven by new solar and wind farms and new battery storage coming online in the state.

"Wind farm projects at Kennedy Energy Park and Kaban, nine solar projects … and the Wandoan battery."

A price drop of $50 by 2024 is forecast for New South Wales, $99 in Victoria, $125 in Tasmania and $35 in South Australia.

Prices rise in the ACT

The ACT is the only jurisdiction where power bills are predicted to rise.

A net increase of 4 per cent, or $77, is forecast by 2024.

Ms Collyer said the modelling showed prices in the ACT increasing by $99 this financial year, and by $123 the following, before falling by $145 in 2023/24.

"A comparatively large number of ACT consumers, 28.7 per cent, are still on standing offers rather than cheaper market offers so there are savings available to households if they shop around for a better deal," she said.

The report said the price rise would be driven by rising wholesale and network costs.

It said environmental costs in the ACT would also increase due to the costs of large scale Feed-in Tariff Schemes.

Closures in South Australia

A modest drop of $35 in South Australia is predicted despite the closure of the Torrens Island and Osbourne units over the next few years.

South Australia is set to be hit by higher network investment costs, which are predicted to accelerate over the next decade to cope with the steep rise in power being returned to the grid from households.

The state recently set a world record by generating more electricity from solar than it consumed for periods of time on five different days.

The report does not include the Northern Territory or Western Australia.

"They're not part of the national electricity market, they both have quite different markets, and in each case, the government asked us to not pursue the price trends in those regions because it wasn't as meaningful for their customers," Ms Collyer said.

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