As a coal miner, Labor member and unionist, you'd be excused for thinking Russell Robertson would be a shoo-in for a seat in the middle of coal country.

However, in 2019, he not only failed to win the then-marginal seat of Capricornia, he also experienced a huge swing against the ALP.

"I think we got caught in two lands," Mr Robertson told ABC's 7.30.

The LNP focused on Labor's ambivalence about Adani's proposed Carmichael coal mine, and branded the party as anti-coal.

"It was just a tidal wave — and parties like the Greens were completely unhelpful," Mr Robertson said.

The coal miner has again been preselected to run against Nationals MP Michelle Landry.

But this time the electoral dynamics have been changed by the Prime Minister Scott Morrison's embrace of a net zero emissions plan.

And it's left local LNP members wary. 

Mixed messaging

"I'm not a great believer in net zero policy per se," explained Colin Boyce, a Queensland state MP who has been preselected to run for the Nationals in the neighbouring coal seat of Flynn.

"We need coal-fired power stations for some time yet before, and if, we transition to an alternative energy source."

Mr Robertson is unsure about how the electorate will react to the federal government's pivot on accepting a net zero emissions target.

"The LNP candidates and members, they've got to turn themselves inside out now, and that's basically entertaining to watch."

Since announcing the federal government's net zero plan in late October, the Prime Minister has argued it will only have a minimal impact on coal workers.

"They'll continue to be working in that industry for decades to come, because there will be a transition that will occur over a long period of time," Mr Morrison told a media conference on November 15.

Mr Boyce rejects even talk of gradual change to the industry.

"I don't believe it," Mr Boyce said. "We do not have an alternative energy source that provides reliable base load power at this point in time."

The federal government's own modelling for net zero predicts a 50 per cent drop in the value of coal production by 2050.

Mr Boyce doesn't accept that either.

"There is scope there for the modelling to be wrong," he said.

A sensitive topic 

Central Queensland's sensitivity to any talk of phasing-out the coal industry was demonstrated in the 2019 federal election, when a pro-coal rally confronted a convoy led by environmentalist Bob Brown in the town of Clermont.

"They rallied pretty quick," explained one of the rally organisers and former local publican, Kel Appleton.

Mr Appleton believes Mr Morrison has made a mistake by embracing net zero, but is comforted by dissident voices in the LNP, such as Queensland Senator Matt Canavan.

"I don't think Scott Morrison did himself any favours, [but] I do like what he's done as far as he's promised nothing will happen to the coal industry," he said. 

Structural change needs to be planned 'now'

Independent modelling of a net zero emissions policy undertaken by the University of Victoria predicts coal industry employment in Australia will drop by nearly 30 per cent between now and 2050.

However, the modelling still predicts more than 37,000 people will be employed in the industry by mid-century.

"Who's using this coal? Well, it won't be Australia," economic modeller Professor Philip Adams said.

"It will be overseas electricity groups, particularly in China and India."

The modelling suggests the shift to net zero will create winners and losers across Australia. Regions such as Central Queensland, which rely on coal and broadacre agriculture, are the most vulnerable to decarbonisation.

"Now is the time to start planning for 30 years into the future. Not 2040 or 2045, it's 2021 where these transition plans need to be thought of."

As part of that transition, the Queensland government has selected the Rockhampton region as a renewable energy zone, with five major wind and solar projects in the pipeline.

"We have 300 days of sunshine, and also from a wind point of view, [based on] wind modelling … we're led to believe our region is very attractive for that," Advance Rockhampton's Greg Bowden said.

Access to the power grid is also an important factor, although Mr Bowden concedes there is some nervousness in the community.

"And I think, from a jobs point of view, if you're staring down the barrel of your job being gone in two, five, 20 years' time, I suppose I'd be a bit nervous as well."

So how does this affect Labor's pitch for Central Queensland's coal seats in the upcoming federal election?

"I think you try to be honest," Mr Robertson said.

Unlike the LNP's Mr Boyce, who argues climate change has been "exaggerated", the Labor candidate admits he's worried about global warming.

But, he adds, the industry has been "a convenient target".

"If the load was shared throughout the community, they'd be less-focused on [the coal industry], and that is how you can do more if you're so inclined."

Watch this story tonight on 7.30 on ABC TV and iview.