It is strange to think this could have been day one of a federal election campaign.

If things had panned out much differently over the summer, Scott Morrison might have spent Sunday having morning tea with the Governor-General and holding a press conference in the Prime Minister's courtyard, after firing the starting gun for a vote on March 5.

In that scenario, the writs would have likely been issued today and the party leaders would already be indulging in made-for-media campaign stunts in the most marginal electorates.

Instead, some backbenchers who serve those seats are now nervous, after waking up to a Newspoll in The Australian newspaper showing support for the Coalition has fallen to its lowest levels since 2018.

On a two-party preferred basis, the government trails 56-44.

It's not entirely unexpected.

The government had hoped for something of a reset over Christmas and early January and, to state the bleeding obvious, it did not go to plan.

Sparse supermarket shelves and a lack of rapid antigen tests were not part of the blueprint for reopening Australia and scuttled talk of a federal election before May.

Senior ministers, who claim the government is copping more than its fair share of blame for pandemic related problems, concede they were caught out by the swift spread of the Omicron variant, which spoiled holidays for a number of people.

"The Australian people are giving us a kick up the rear end at the moment. We haven’t got everything right, we’ve acknowledged that," Agriculture Minister David Littleproud said, after being asked about Newspoll.

But he later added:

"If I had a lazy 100 [dollars], I'd put it on us. We were in the same position last time."

In the poll, Labor's primary vote is 41 per cent – enough to win a big majority – though senior figures in the government and opposition are surprised it is so high.

They doubt it, a national poll, properly reflects the reality in crucial seats around the country.

Most in Labor are also very wary of what happened in 2019, when Morrison managed to defy the odds and much of the public commentary to hold on to power.

However, the opposition is pleased the Prime Minister's approval ratings have continued to steadily slide.

Anthony Albanese is now just two points behind Morrison as preferred prime minister.

"At the start of the pandemic, we couldn't get a look-in due to events out of our control. We needed to bring him back down, which he has helped us with quite a lot due to his own missteps," a senior Labor figure said.

Of course, throughout this pandemic, things have continued to change rapidly.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is just one member of the government who has been suggesting problems for the Prime Minister, like the spread of Omicron and the supply of rapid antigen tests, might slip into the rear-vision mirror by the time voters go to the polls.

"The next election is months away," Mr Frydenberg told Channel Nine on Monday.

"The issues that we'll be talking about on election day could very well be different to the ones we are talking about this morning."

For the Treasurer to be right, his colleagues argue, the government needs to quickly shift the public debate to a strength, like the recovery of the economy.

They're hoping the Prime Minister will try to start this process when he speaks at the National Press Club on Tuesday.

But a number of Liberal MPs say a lot more will now hinge on the federal budget in late March, which will be the platform used to launch the campaign for an election in mid to late May.

One MP in a tight seat reflected the views of some of his city and suburban colleagues:

"It might all come down to the budget now.

"No pressure Josh!"