To date, the much-heralded report by senior civil servant Sue Gray has confirmed that 16 “events” were held in Downing Street between May 2020 and April 2021 while the rest of the nation was in lockdown.

The blame, the report said, could be sheeted home to “failures of leadership and judgment” fuelled by a culture of “excessive workplace drinking”. The steely Gray based her findings on interviews with more than 70 individuals and scrutiny of thousands of emails, WhatsApp and text messages, although she made clear that she had been stymied in her comments due to the police investigation now under way.

A sitting Prime Minister under police investigation? In itself, this is an extraordinary situation, one which historians suggest has not occurred in Britain before, although 14 MPs have found themselves under police investigation between 1880 and the present day. A few ended up in jail but all resigned or were forced out, their political careers in tatters.

Less than 24 hours after responding to the excoriating report in Parliament, however, Johnson turned his back on his domestic woes and flew to Kyiv to show support for his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, in the face of a threatened Russian invasion. It did not go unnoticed in Europe that while President Emmanuel Macron of France has had regular telephone contact with Vladimir Putin, “partygate″⁣ forced the chaotic Johnson to postpone his call with the Russian leader.

Loading

Until this week, “Waiting for Gray” has been the mantra for Johnson’s biggest critics within the party, a play on Samuel Beckett’s absurdist masterpiece, Waiting for Godot. Tory MPs can trigger a leadership contest if 54 letters of no-confidence are sent to the backbench group known as the 1922 Committee. So far, 12 Tory MPs including an ex-minister, Tobias Ellwood, joined the nine who have publicly admitted to submitting their letters. A further 17 are reported to have done so secretly although only the chairman knows the real numbers.

While the threshold has not been reached, it is clear most backbenchers agree Johnson is in a very precarious position while the mood among those who remain undecided, according to the BBC’s Iain Watson, is “stable but sullen”. The political reality is that by any measure, Johnson should be mortally wounded. And yet MPs need to be convinced of an electable alternative capable of beating Starmer. Polling suggests the Labour leader has taken an 18-point lead in the “most capable PM” stakes with the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, consolidating as the public’s preferred Tory alternative. And yet 63 per cent of Conservative voters still believe “Johnson has what it takes” compared with 51 per cent for his Chancellor.

Isaac Levido is said to have insisted to skittish Tory donors this week that there’s time to regain ground and “partygate″⁣ is no more than a “sophomore slump”, an American expression for students who thrive in first year but flop in their second. With no timetable yet for the police report, conflict on the Ukraine/Russian border and an election not due until May 2024, time seemed key to this Prime Minister’s survival.

But the shock resignation of Mirza, a woman who has stayed longer by Johnson’s side than most of his wives, coupled with Sunak’s repeated refusal to rule out a leadership bid overnight have unleashed the strongest rumours yet that the firing squad is assembling and a coup is finally under way.