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Posted: 2022-02-28 06:29:31

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The biggest climate driver of the wet summer has been a La Nina event which has brought above-average rainfall, marine heatwaves and humid nights. While the La Nina has peaked and is beginning to weaken, it is likely conditions will remain wetter than average for a few more weeks.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s Autumn Climate Outlook for 2022 suggests that as La Nina wanes, Australia faces a potentially wetter than average autumn, with night-time temperatures in many areas predicted to be higher than normal.

“Australia’s severe weather season runs from October to April, meaning autumn remains a higher-risk period for storms, fires, floods and tropical cyclones,” the outlook said.

“Autumn days are likely to be warmer than normal for much of the northern half of Australia, coastal Western Australia, and parts of south-eastern Australia, while a small area of eastern New South Wales will likely be cooler than normal.”

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Risk Frontiers general manager for resilience Andrew Gissing, a former director for emergency management with the Victoria SES, said the flooding in northern NSW had caused significant damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure.

“Based on predictions, flooding at Lismore will exceed record flood heights set in 1974 and 1954 by a significant margin, resulting in severe flooding,” he said.

“These floods have been deadly and continue to pose a risk, particularly to those who enter floodwater. The majority of flood deaths in Australia occur when people drive or walk in floodwater.

“Climate change means that our atmosphere can hold more water, likely increasing the intensity of rain events in the future. Rising sea levels will exacerbate flooding in coastal areas.”

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