Brody Mihocek, recruited as a VFL centre half-back, is a mighty competitor and a very capable second tall forward. It is a measure of Collingwood’s pop gun attack that he topped the club goalkicking in 2021, 2020 and 2019 without surpassing 36 goals.

Nathan Kreuger, recruited from Geelong at low cost, is showing a small amount of promise. But should he make it, it seems more realistic that he’ll be a number two or three tall forward.

The Pies are unlikely to partially solve their forward quandary by relocating Moore, their most valuable player. This would create an arguably larger crater in defence and Moore, in any case, has shown a better aptitude for reading cues as an intercepting defender.

There are essentially four ways for the Magpies - and Essendon, to a lesser degree (Peter Wright is improving but not necessarily Mr Right) - to redress their key forward weakness:

1. Use an early pick to draft one.

2. Back up the truck and sign one as a free agent, as Sydney (Lance Franklin) and Richmond (Lynch) did.

3. Acquire a key forward via an expensive trade, eg Geelong with (free agent) Jeremy Cameron.

4. Get extremely lucky with a later pick or cheap trade.

None of these paths are safe. There isn’t a third King brother in the 2022 or 2023 draft pools, and the selection of key forwards has proven hazardous.

It’s often asserted that “you have to draft key forwards early.” That’s partially true, given that the Kings were both picked inside six, as were Franklin and Jarryd Roughead and the Carlton/West Coast star Josh Kennedy. Other guns were drafted later in the first round.

It is a measure of Collingwood’s pop gun attack that Brody Mihocek topped the club goalkicking in 2021, 2020 and 2019 without surpassing 36 goals.

But consider the risks if you bet the farm on a key forward. Jonathan Patton, Tom Boyd, Paddy McCartin and Josh Schache were selected with that theory in mind at picks one or two.

In the case of McCartin, he was selected over the near-consensus pick one for most clubs in 2014, Christian Petracca. The recent fortunes of Melbourne and the Saints would be vastly different had Petracca been chosen first.

St Kilda are blessed to have their key forward in Max King and it was instructive to see his influence on their victory over the Giants, despite King’s profligate 1.7. Whereas the Giants often blasted forward indiscriminately, King gave the Saints an important contest and reference point.

If the Pies found a gun key back - somewhat easier than a key forward - they could move Moore to his less natural slot. But the Magpies believe that you build from defence and are unlikely to take that punt.

Alternatively, Collingwood could follow what you might term “the Melbourne model” and invest first in inside-and-out midfielders - the indispensable elements of any premiership team - and key defenders, as the Demons did by paying upwards of $1.5m a season for the combination of Jake Lever and Steven May.

The Demons did not have stellar key forwards, and they spent much of their draft and salary cap capital on Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Luke Jackson, May and Lever, having Max Gawn already on the books.

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They imported Ben Brown as a relatively cheap key forward, relocated Tom McDonald and built a forward line around mid-sized and small scoring threats (Bayley Fritsch, Kysaiah Pickett most of all) and midfielders with goal nous.

Whether they draft one with their first pick this year - and there isn’t an abundance in the draft - or continue to use later choices or eventually import one, the Magpies aren’t in a strong enough position to sell the farm for a key forward. Not yet.

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