The surge in inflation to its highest annual rate in more than 20 years comes at a difficult time for the Coalition because it has campaigned hard on its claim to be a superior economic manager.

The Coalition is not to blame for the 5.1 per cent annual price increase in the year to the end of March. The jump in inflation is a global phenomenon largely due to the shortages caused by the war in Ukraine and lingering COVID-related supply blockages.

But presiding over the price rise makes it harder for Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to claim that he has delivered long-term prosperity.

As Frydenberg himself said on Wednesday, many Australians are doing it tough and there could be “difficult times” ahead.

Millions of Australians are now taking a huge pay cut in real terms because their wages are not keeping pace with inflation. The next quarterly wage price index, the best measure of pay packets, won’t be released until after the election, but it is likely to show that wages grew only half the rate of inflation in the year to March.

The Coalition can point to the $250 cash “cost of living” payments announced in the March budget that will start hitting welfare recipients’ bank accounts this week as evidence that it has responded quickly to the pain in people’s hip pockets.

But in light of this bump in inflation the payments now seem too small and, in any case, most wage earners won’t get them.

People with mortgages will be hit again next Tuesday if, as is now possible, the Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates.

Again this is not the Coalition’s fault, since the RBA sets rates independently in line with its mission of keeping inflation within its target range of 2 to 3 per cent. It was always to be expected that rates would rise from their historic low after the pandemic.

But the sharp uptick in inflation means rates will have to rise faster than was expected before the latest CPI, making it harder for the RBA to achieve the so-called “soft landing” which brings inflation under control without causing a recession. The Coalition has promised to create jobs but a sudden rise in rates will make that harder.