“March is the Month of Expectation. The things we do not know - The Persons of prognostication. Are coming now,” wrote poet Emily Dickinson in March is the Month of Expectation. Well, March has been and gone, a month in which prognosticators writing in major news outlets last year claimed “millions of Australians” would leave their jobs.

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures published in the quarterly labour force statistics revealed that in February 2022, 5.2 per cent of employed people reported they were expecting to change jobs in the next 12 months. In February 2020, before the COVID-19 lockdowns, the figure was 4.9 per cent of employed people. The actual numbers of people represented by these statistics were comfortably less than three-quarters of a million on each occasion, with the latest numbers slightly down on the previous quarter.

The “great resignation”, as claimed by too many media outlets and their over-eager and possibly self-interested commentators, seems to be running late for work, or perhaps has itself resigned in the face of reality. This kind of hype and uncritical application of what may or may not be happening in the US labour market to our situation is not only unhelpful; it has the potential to be disturbing, even damaging.

Much of the rhetoric surrounding the predicted mass migration of employees was that market conditions were now running so heavily in their favour they could name their price for their labours. However, Shane Wright, writing here on March 24th, points out that although there is some modest wages growth predicted, it is more than offset by predicted inflation, leaving most worse off.

Loading

What is generally true is specifically false; there will always be winners and losers. Unemployment is practically non-existent in some postcodes and very high in others. As is so often the case with careers, being in the right or wrong place at the right or wrong time with an in-demand or surplus-to-needs skill set will play a very large role in whether it is possible and sensible to think about moving jobs.

Exaggerated or even false predictions claiming we are all at it has the capacity to mislead employees and employers. Always trying to get as much accurate information about your circumstances and relevant labour markets is likely to be more helpful than relying on dubious forecasts.

The COVID lockdowns may have been a blessed relief for the reclusive Ms Dickinson, who reputedly lived in isolation and was reluctant to leave her bedroom. With persons of prognostication coming, frankly who can blame her for not being enthusiastic about greeting them?

Jim Bright FAPS is a professor of career education and development at ACU and owns Bright and Associates, a career management consultancy. Email to opinion@jimbright.com. Follow him on Twitter @DrJimBright