As he enters his fifth series as New South Wales coach, one thing about Brad Fittler's Origin tenure remains true – his Blues machine runs on vibes. 

It's always been that way for Fittler. One of his greatest strengths as a coach is his absolute belief in what he's doing and his willingness to roll the dice on selections, to take a big swing. Brad Fittler is going to select the players Brad Fittler thinks the Blues need, for better or for worse, and he'll live with the consequences.

It's why Fittler blooded a record 11 debutants in his first game in charge back in 2018 and it's why he has the equal-best win percentage of any New South Wales coach. But it's also why Josh Addo-Carr, one of the brightest stars of the Fittler era, will be watching Origin I from home.

In selecting Daniel Tupou over the Canterbury flyer, Fittler has waded into that classic Origin quagmire: How much should past performances in a Blues jersey count compared with current form? When does a desire for the incumbents to be pushed to the limit turn into making a change for change's sake?

Addo-Carr's absence means only two players have appeared in every match Fittler has coached for New South Wales. The first is James Tedesco, who has become the dominant on-field figure of Fittler's Blues, first as their star player and now as their captain, and the other is hooker Damien Cook, who is entering his fifth series in the team but has never stopped looking over his shoulder.

"Freddy picks on form. That's a big reason we got our chance back in 2018, and you have to be playing good footy when you come into the side, to give yourself the confidence you need in the series," Cook said.

"You only rent the jersey. You rent it each game. You give it back and then if you're lucky, you get reselected. After that first game, it was addictive, I wanted more, I wanted to do it for as long as I could, which means you have to improve, you have to be coachable, you have to continue to learn and grow your game. I'd like to think I do that.

"If you told me after that first game I'd still be here all the time later, I wouldn't have believed you, even after that first series.

"It was such a surreal moment but after I played that first game, I wanted to keep playing more than anything. I knew I had to keep playing good footy and keep improving, I couldn't lose that opportunity."

Cook, like Addo-Carr and another Fittler stalwart who missed selection this time around in Angus Crichton, was given a chance in the Origin arena because of Fittler's willingness to take that chance.

New South Wales is now a side built in that image – of the 22-man squad named on Monday, only Tedesco, Tupou and Tyson Frizell predate Fittler's tenure as coach. If you can prove you're good enough, the Blues will take a shot on you, that's the Brad Fittler guarantee.

But there's another side to that coin. It means nobody's spot is really safe, and that anybody can enter or exit the frame at any time depending on how they're playing – and Tupou is playing well to earn selection, better than Addo-Carr at least, albeit in a far better club side.

The Tongan man also has an Origin career to be proud of – he was just about the Blues' best player in their 2020 series loss, with his work in yardage a particular stand-out, and he's the state's longest-serving player and the sole survivor from the drought-breaking 2014 series. He has always done his state proud and given his consistency, it is likely he will again.

That's not to say Fittler always gets it right. For every Daniel Saifiti, who was a shock selection back in 2019 only to turn into one of the game's top front-rowers, there's a Matt Prior, who played 33 minutes in his sole Origin appearance the year before and was never sighted at the top level again. Not every swing can be a hit, otherwise, they're not swings at all.

Complicating matters is the fact that Addo-Carr, who has scored 10 tries in 12 Origin appearances to sit just one behind Michael O'Connor and Jarryd Hayne on the all-time Blues leaderboard, felt the tap on the shoulder but Jack Wighton, a five-eighth by trade and usually a utility for his state, did not and was picked at centre because, in Fittler's words, he's never let the team down while playing there.

And this is a departure from Fittler's usual philosophy of selecting the best team he can while not worrying about Queensland. Tupou's aerial prowess seems to have played a role in his selection due to Queensland boasting two high-flyers on the wing in Selwyn Cobbo and Xavier Coates. Wighton getting a start, likely next to the powerful but squat Brian To'o, is likely a similar attempt at a countermove.

It's reminiscent of the many defensive centres New South Wales rolled out over the years in an effort to shut down Greg Inglis, a practice that never really worked and was only ended once Fittler took charge and instead chose to fight Queensland's firepower with some heavy artillery of his own.

In the end, there is no exact science to these things. Hard and fast selection rules do nothing but weigh an Origin team down.

Some incumbents are more incumbent than others, and nothing can change that, not even being one of the state's greatest ever try-scorers or being one of Fittler's great success stories. Fittler is loyal to his guys, but a coach must be just as loyal to performance as he is to the men who have done the job for him before.

Addo-Carr will almost certainly play Origin again, but not this time. As he always does, Fittler has felt the vibes and taken his swing. He's made his choices, and he'll live and die with them.