Presumably, the communiqué meant just Russian exports, for it is hard to see how even this might be made to work, let alone a blanket cap. We don’t yet have a world government, however fondly G7 leaders might imagine they amount to one, so imposing such a regime across borders would be well nigh impossible.
Some countries do indeed control the retail price of energy - notably in the Middle East, Latin America and the subcontinent. But to say we won’t allow fuel to be sold above a certain price level is not only exceptionally costly to governments and retailers when wholesale prices are high, but also quite different from the current suggestion of refusing to buy at any more than a defined price. The response from the producer may well be that of simply refusing to sell, as is all too possible with Russian supplies to Europe if buyers are banned from paying the going rate. If that were to be the response, it would send prices higher still.
Putin is progressively losing his Western markets, but at this stage it doesn’t really matter because skyrocketing prices provide compensating rewards.
What is more, the sort of price cap envisaged may or may not be tolerable for low-cost producers such as Saudi Arabia, but it will likely render higher-cost production uneconomic. At a time when the West is furiously trying to find alternatives to Russian energy, this looks particularly stupid.
None of this is to lightly dismiss the scale of the problem the G7 is facing. Sanctions against Russia are all very well, but one of the effects has been to put a rocket under energy and food prices, such that it is sometimes hard to know who sanctions are damaging most - Russia or the West.
In any case, Putin is getting a lot more for his exports of oil and gas than he could otherwise have hoped for. The Russian despot is still in the money, even at the deeply discounted prices he is forced to sell at in Asian markets, and therefore has no difficulty continuing to fund his war in Ukraine.
Russia’s current account is in massive surplus, and the rouble is consequently strong. Moscow did admittedly default on some of its external debt this week, but this had nothing to do with inability to pay. Rather it was because sanctions prevented payment. It was therefore a somewhat meaningless default.
The dismal truth is that sanctions are not working in the way that had been hoped. Putin is progressively losing his Western markets, but at this stage it doesn’t really matter because skyrocketing prices provide compensating rewards. At the same time, sanctions have greatly contributed to a politically destabilising cost of living squeeze across the Western world. Putin can reasonably claim to be winning the economic war, even if the physical one is in stalemate.
The G7 intention is simple enough - to reduce the amount of money going to Russia while at the same time countering one of the main causes of rising inflation. Yet even if it were possible to impose such controls internationally, the long-term consequences for supply would still be deeply negative.
A number of developers have already threatened to suspend promised new investment in North Sea oil and gas because of Britain’s imposition of a windfall profits tax. A price cap would have much the same effect, but on a grander scale, further undermining the quest for greater energy security.
Even before the pandemic, politically driven net-zero targets had prompted a growing hiatus in oil and gas investment. Collapsing demand for hydrocarbons during the pandemic further reduced the investment required even to keep things ticking over, let alone meet the additional demands now being put on the industry to provide alternatives to Russian energy.
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A couple of weeks back, Biden’s White House urged refiners to do their “patriotic duty” by expanding capacity and cutting their prices. The obvious contradiction here went entirely unrecognised. You are unlikely to increase supply if you are also trying to control the price.
Russia could of course take the view that a capped price would be acceptable if it means that Europe and other international markets remain open to its exports. But this would merely bring us back to where we were, as funders of an illegal war that we also condemn. Whichever way you look at it, the price cap idea simply doesn’t add up.