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With China seeking to secure influence in the Pacific, now it seems that Australia is catching up. The Albanese government is determinedly weaving climate through its foreign policy.
This is at the heart of its efforts to host a COP.
Climate talks in Tuvalu in 2019, with Australia represented by former prime minister Scott Morrison, did not end happily.Credit:AAP
But even if Australia was to secure the unambiguous support of the Pacific family, this would only be a first step in winning the right to host the event.
COPs are held annually, and the right to host them rotates through the five UN regional groupings. Australia sits within the group known as Western Europe and Others, or WEOG in the UN’s acronym-prone idiom.
Australia would need to win the support of other members of that group. Given the renewed interest of the United States and Britain in the region, this does not seem too much of a push said Dr Bill Hare, a climate scientist and chief executive of the think tank Climate Analytics, who is a close student of global climate diplomacy.
“The world is keen to welcome Australia back to the fold on climate,” said Hare, who believes talks over the EU-Australia free-trade agreement have already improved as a result of the Albanese government’s repositioning of Australia on climate.
But it is more complicated even than that. The last COP was held in Glasgow by Britain, another member of WEOG. Due to the way hosting opportunities rotate through regions, the group is not slated to host another COP for at least four years.
If Australia wants to host in COP29 in 2024 – before this term of parliament ends – it will need to convince the Eastern Europe Group to agree to a swap. This might mean winning the support of Poland, which typically hosts these meetings for the group.
Also critical will be the support of Egypt, which is hosting this year’s COP.
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On that score, the Albanese government’s climate efforts so far have already helped.
This week Dr Mahmoud Mohieldin, the UN Climate Change High-Level Champion for Egypt – a key post for the COP host – visited Sydney for the global energy summit hosted by the Albanese government and International Energy Agency.
Mohieldin, an executive director at the International Monetary Fund, warmly welcomed Australia’s new target of 43 per cent emissions reduction by 2030.
Though the target is criticised by the Greens as well as some expert and advocacy groups as insufficient, Mohieldin described it to the Herald and The Age as “very promising and very ambitious”.
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Mohieldin added that the energy summit itself, which was attended by energy ministers from around the world, was evidence of serious intent by Australia.
Should it all fall into place, Australia would then need to settle the practicalities. Given the size and complexity of COP meetings it is unlikely that an island nation would host the key event, but rather hold pre-COP meetings or co-host events in Australia as Fiji did in Germany in 2017.
If Australia is successful, the diplomatic impact would be significant, says Richie Merzian who heads the Australia Institute’s energy program and once served as a climate negotiator for Australia.
The COP talks are the largest UN events held outside the organisation’s New York headquarters and, as the impacts of climate change strike harder, their prestige is increasingly matched by their significance.