But you would have to assume that Oz Minerals would have thought itself very likely to have been on BHP’s wish list and would have prepared its defensive battle plan. BHP had already taken a position in Oz Minerals just shy of the 5 per cent mandatory disclosure level - although it is not clear when this was acquired or when Oz Minerals became aware of it.

Unsurprisingly, Oz Minerals bolted out of the gate on Monday morning to brandish BHP’s $25 a share ($8.3 billion) overture as opportunistic.

It’s a fair statement, there is nothing particularly generous about this offer. So, Oz Minerals was happy to dispense with any hope from BHP that this would be a friendly offer.

That said, in the game of takeovers, opportunism gets a bad rap.

If a bidding company wasn’t trying to capitalise on anything it could to minimise the purchase price then it wouldn’t be doing the right thing by its own shareholders.

The art to buying assets is opportunistic timing. And BHP has understandably pounced on Oz Minerals during a period when its prey’s share price is spluttering on the back of a weakness in the copper price.

It is also no accident that BHP moved five weeks after Oz Minerals updated the market with disappointing guidance on lower copper production due to some operational difficulties and COVID absenteeism. Oz also told investors that costs were elevated because of the lower volumes, inflation and labour shortages.

It is this window that BHP is seeking to exploit.

For its part, Oz Minerals, which has flatly rejected the $25 price BHP has put on the table, will argue that the offer is lowball when viewed through a longer-term lens. Only seven months ago Oz Minerals was almost touching $30.

The copper price is generally considered a proxy for the global economy which is currently under a cloud, given the moves by the world’s central banks to tame inflation.

Oz Minerals would prefer its investors focus on the longer term structural demand for copper and nickel in a decarbonising world.

While BHP’s offer feels like an opening bid and that there is more to come, a deal isn’t guaranteed.

BHP has offered an amount which represents a 32 per cent premium to Oz Minerals’ previous closing price - which is at the leaner end of generous - and not enough to receive due diligence.

Oz Minerals is not about to tip its hand about how much more would make it reverse that stance and agree to full throttle negotiations.

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For Mike Henry it comes down to his commitment to a disciplined capital framework and his assessment of other opportunities to grow BHP’s portfolio of future-facing commodities.

The market got a small taste of Henry’s discipline late last year when it battled Andrew Forrest for prospective Canadian nickel explorer, Noront. BHP ultimately bowed out of the race.

Oz Minerals believes its negotiating strength comes from being the most attractive dance partner around. It has high-quality, long life assets located in Australia, a market BHP knows well and where sovereign risk is lower than other copper and nickel rich parts of the world.

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