Meanwhile, Ukraine’s army does not yet seem capable of winning a decisive victory. It has stabilised the frontline, but it has not been able to throw Putin out of the territory in the country’s south and east which he seized over the last eight years.

A few months ago, Ukraine’s military leaders talked about a counter-offensive but this has not happened.

Australia, the US and its European allies now face a series of difficult choices.

Some, such as influential US foreign policy analyst John J. Mearsheimer, say that the west is “playing with fire” and it should start putting pressure on Ukraine to accept a peace where Putin keeps his gains.

Loading

He argues that allowing the war to drag on indefinitely raises the risk it will escalate into a nuclear conflict. Russia is already playing nuclear roulette by deploying its troops next to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in the occupied Ukrainian city of Enerhodar. It has mocked the international community by refusing access to United Nations inspectors.

While this doomsday scenario is terrifying, the west cannot simply let Putin bluff his way to victory. We cannot abandon Ukraine and reward Putin for his aggression. Australia and its allies have no choice but to support Ukraine.

Yet, this raises a new question of whether to accept that the war will drag on indefinitely and hope Putin eventually caves or whether to try to win the war decisively.

In practice, the former means a continuation of the current policy of providing weapons in limited quantities to ensure Ukraine can hold its ground while the latter involves supplying massive quantities of the most advanced weapons so Ukraine can deliver a knock-out punch.

Those who want to limit arms shipments to Ukraine argue that if Putin loses too badly it increases the risk that he will do something even more crazy.

They are betting that the unprecedented economic sanctions imposed on Russia will gradually bring Putin to the negotiating table.

Yet prolonging the current war of attrition carries the risk that Ukraine and its allies will grow tired of the war before Putin does.

Russia has started limiting gas supplies to the European Union. It could be hard to maintain support for the war in the EU which will face a cold winter and possibly an economic recession.

US President Joe Biden has provided vital leadership by announcing on Ukraine’s national day $3 billion of additional military aid, the largest package of aid since the war started. It includes high-tech weapons such as anti-aircraft missiles, artillery, counter-drone defences and radar equipment.

Loading

Australia has already delivered or promised $385 million of military aid and it should look for new ways to contribute either militarily or economically.

The longer the war goes, the clearer it becomes that Putin must be stopped. Each day brings new evidence of his brutality.

He must not get away with starting an invasion and seizing the territory of a sovereign state. Australia and its allies must keep supporting Ukraine until Putin is defeated.

Gay Alcorn sends an exclusive newsletter to subscribers each week. Sign up to receive her Note from the Editor.