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The Bureau of Meteorology has just released its outlook for the severe weather season. So what will your summer look like?
Follow live as we break down the forecast with weather reporter Kate Doyle.
By Jessica Riga
Let's talk about thunderstorm asthma
Do you know if we're likely to get a severe asthma event in Melbourne before Christmas? I think I should get an extra ventolin spray if so. Also will we be affected more if we get a COVID infection from somewhere? Thanks very much for your blog.
- Merrowyn
Hi Merrowyn, thanks for your question.
BOM's forecast does warn of a heightened potential for thunderstorm asthma, especially if conditions are dry late in spring and for early summer, particularly in parts of Victoria.
So while we don't have a more specific time frame, your comment about getting prepared now sounds like a great idea.
By Kate Doyle
WA is looking fairly neutral
Hi A lot of the current forecasts relate to the Eastern Coast weather predictions. However what can we expect for Perth’s weather over the next few months? Will we be subjected to Heatwaves and the possibility of Bushfire’s over Summer? Thanks Lynne
- Lynne
Hey all the folks asking about WA,
No you are not forgotten, it is just that your weather situation isn't looking quite as precariously sodden at the moment.
The rainfall outlook for WA over the next three months is pretty neutral. Southern WA doesn't get much of an impact from the climate drivers churning things up this year so it is looking fairly normal.
There is a pretty good chance of more cyclones than normal. With Seroja not long ago a good reminder that cyclones can bring a punch well south.
By Kate Doyle
Normal risk of storms still means hail
What's the risk of large hailstones in Eastern Australia compared with previous years?
- Rex
Hey Rex,
The outlook suggests there is a normal risk of thunderstorms this season. But a normal year means plenty of hail, especially for northern NSW and SEQ.
By Kate Doyle
South Australia = Australia's middle child
Hello, Is there any information on how this affects South Australia in general and Adelaide in particular? Thanks
- Often overlooked
Hey Often Overlooked,
As a native South Australian I concur that the centre state is shamefully neglected!
Most of SA's rain comes from the westerlies that should stream through over winter. As the high pressure systems move down SA usually gets hot and dry summers.
There is some influence from the negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña climate drivers working behind the scenes at the moment but it is not expected to be as wet in SA as further east.
This the outlook for November to January rainfall:
...baring in mind normal conditions in SA are less than the eastern and northern siblings.
There is always a chance that a rogue big rain even could come though. I'm certainly keeping an eye on Lake Eyre this summer.
By Jessica Riga
How do I prepare for a flood?
BOM's outlook warns of an increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia and an increased risk of an above average number of tropical cyclones and tropical lows.
You might not have much warning, so if you live in an area that could be affected by a flood it's important to make preparations.
We've put together a list of things you should do to get ready if the worst happens, which you can check out here (and it's probably worth bookmarking for later).
By Jessica Riga
Rain but heatwaves???
Here's an update from our weather reporter Kate Doyle.
Yeah it might sound counter intuitive but the outlook for this severe weather season is predicting widespread rain as well as increased risk of prolonged heatwaves.
Individual days are not likely to be as hot as in a normal or dry summer, but prolonged heat events with high overnight temperatures and high humidity are combining make it hot under the collar this summer.
By Jessica Riga
Key Event
Got a question about BOM's forecast?
Wondering what's in store for your summer?
Submit your questions and comments to the blog using the blue 'leave a comment' button and we'll answer them here in the blog.
LoadingBy Jessica Riga
By the way, we're in the third La Niña in row
In case you missed it, last month BOM officially declared we are in the third La Niña in a row.
In the video below, our weather reporter Kate Doyle explains what to expect.
By Jessica Riga
Key Event
When should we expect this severe weather?
The Bureau of Meteorology says while severe weather can occur at any time of the year, October to April is the peak period for bushfires, heatwaves, flooding, tropical cyclones, and severe thunderstorms in Australia.
Here's meteorologist Jonathan How to help walk us through the forecast.
By Jessica Riga
What does BOM's severe weather outlook signal?
- The outlook warns of an increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia and an increased risk of an above average number of tropical cyclones and tropical lows
- It finds normal bushfire potential in eastern states but an elevated risk of grass fire in southern Australia, and increased risk of prolonged heatwaves in southern areas with higher humidity
- There is a normal risk of severe thunderstorms but a possible increase in risk of thunderstorm asthma events if conditions are dry in late spring and early summer
By Jessica Riga
BOM severe weather outlook signals a summer of cyclones and floods
Well, here we go again.
The Bureau of Meteorology is urging us to prepare for another sodden summer with the release of its severe weather outlook.
So what does it mean for you?
Send us your questions and comments as myself and weather reporter Kate Doyle break down what's in store this summer.
