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Global fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions have bounced back to make 2022 the highest year on record, surpassing the previous all-time high set in 2019.
Key points:
- Global fossil emissions are back to a record high and expected to keep growing before they stabilise
- It is an "impossibility" to keep warming within 1.5C without overshoot, scientists say, and we'll cross 1.5C early next decade
- Natural carbon sinks are becoming less efficient at absorbing carbon as warming intensifies
If emissions aren't brought down, the world will use up its 1.5-degree-Celsius carbon budget — the amount of CO2 we can emit and stay within 1.5C — within nine years, according to the latest emissions stocktake from the Global Carbon Project, released today.
The equation is fairly straightforward: there is an estimated 380 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions left in the 1.5C budget, and right now we're using up just over 40Gt of that each year.
There is an estimated 1,200Gt left in our 2C budget.
Beyond 1.5C, extinctions are forecast to rise steeply, coral diversity will shrink by 90 per cent or more, extreme weather events — droughts, floods, cyclones, bushfires — will intensify in parts of the world, sea-level rise will accelerate, millions more people will be displaced, and crossing tipping points leading to ecosystem and ice-sheet collapse will become more likely.
CSIRO scientist Pep Canadell, director of the Global Carbon Project and a co-author of the report, says it's an "impossibility" that we can keep warming within 1.5C by reducing emissions alone.
To do so would require the equivalent drop in emissions we saw under COVID — around 1.4Gt — every single year until we reach zero emissions.
"We are going to cross, early next decade, 1.5C [of warming]," Dr Canadell said.
"Our only chance to stabilise at 1.5C by the end of the century is by then removing a lot of CO2 from the atmosphere. Otherwise we are going to cross it and move well beyond 1.5C."
However, the technology to do so at scale doesn't exist.
"Whether we can do it at the scales needed or not, that's a different matter."
And natural carbon sinks, which remove CO2 from the atmosphere and sequester it in, for instance, forests or seawater, are becoming less efficient as warming increases, Dr Canadell says.
"[There's been a] 17 per cent loss of [CO2 absorption] efficiency on land, and 4 per cent loss of efficiency in the ocean. Oceans have a harder time dissolving CO2 when temperatures are higher.
"Tropical forests are already working at their highest efficiency with current temperatures. Increasing temperatures in the tropics are making this less efficient."
China's emissions dropped, but US, India rose
The latest emissions data has been published in Earth System's Science Data journal, and is being presented today at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt.
Emissions from fossil fuels and cement are projected to be 36.6Gt as of the end of 2022, and total emissions for the year from all sources including land use are projected to be 40.5Gt.
The bounce back to 2019 levels happened despite the world's largest polluter, China, recording a drop in emissions.
That's because the world's second- and third-largest emitters, the United States and India, both had significant increases. Emissions also went up for the rest of the world combined, though to a lesser degree.
China's emissions drop was attributed to ongoing COVID restrictions in the country, and their emissions are projected to return to growth in the years ahead.
The rate of growth will depend on China's economy, global economic growth, and China's development of large-scale renewable projects.
The 10-year global trend to 2021 shows that emissions are still increasing, though the rate of increase isn't as steep compared to the 10 years to 2010.
"If we were already peaking, one can say, well, what's next? Are we beginning to drop? But at this point we don't even see that," Dr Canadell said.
"When we reach peak [emissions] over the coming years, [I think we're likely to be there for] quite a bit before we really see a clearly declining progress."
Australia's neighbours call for halt to new fossil fuel projects
The report comes as leaders meet in Egypt, where they will hash out commitments in an attempt to meet the Paris Agreement of keeping warming well below 2C, and pursue efforts to keep it to 1.5C.
Tuvalu has joined its Pacific neighbour Vanuatu in calling for the establishment of a fossil-fuel non-proliferation treaty at the summit.
The treaty would "stop the expansion of any new coal, oil and gas" and "wind down existing fossil fuel production in line with 1.5C", according to a statement from the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Initiative.
Australia has bid to co-host COP31 with our Pacific neighbours in 2026.
However, we also continue to open new coal, oil and gas mines.
While this could make for a tricky partnership at COP31, our dependence on fossil fuels both domestically and as a source of export revenue continues to impede our own progress on emissions reduction, according to Frank Jotzo, director of the Centre for Climate and Energy Policy at ANU, who wasn't involved with today's report.
"What we need to keep in mind is that Australia's per-capita greenhouse gas emissions are very, very high in international comparison.
"Among the developed world, we're really only in the same league as Canada and the United States.
"Every other developed country has much lower per-capita emissions."
New Zealand's annual per-capita emissions, for instance, are just over 2 tonnes. The global average is around 5.3t. Australia's is 15.1t.
Again, this is largely a product of fossil fuel reliance, according to New Zealand climate scientist Andy Reisinger, who wasn't involved with today's report.
"New Zealand invested heavily in hydropower before climate change was a thing and it benefits from that. Australia is a heavy user of coal because you can dig it out of the ground quite readily," Dr Reisinger said.
"The key challenge is how to transition away from any lock-in effects. Durable change is a challenge for all countries, even if their starting points are different."
The good news is Australia continues to make decent progress in reducing emissions in our domestic electricity supply — mostly thanks to domestic solar, wind, and large-scale solar.
While other sectors are lagging, Professor Jotzo said with the right policy settings, Australia could exceed our 2030 targets.
"A significantly stronger reduction than 43 per cent could be achieved in Australia. There's plenty of unharvested, low-hanging fruit after a decade of inaction on climate policy.
"But unless more is done in terms of policy intervention, we may not reach that target.
"It requires effort, but that effort is readily achievable."