Globally, during the pandemic, emissions declined about 5.5 per cent on 2019 levels because of COVID-19 measures. But in 2021, emissions rebounded about 5 per cent from the previous year.

Oil emissions – which represent about one third of global emissions – are projected to rise more than 2 per cent and dominate the global rise in fossil fuel carbon emissions.

Global gas emissions are projected to decline a tiny amount, due to the tightness of supply related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while cement emissions are projected to decrease about 1.5 per cent due to the slowdown of construction in China.

As the graph below shows, globally there has been a small but uncertain decline in emissions from land use change – the way that humans modify the natural landscape. Indonesia, Brazil and the Democratic Republic of the Congo contribute almost 60 per cent of global land use change emissions.

Global Carbon Project research does not include Australian-specific data, but government figures show our national greenhouse gas emissions were about 22 per cent lower in the year 2022 compared with 2005.

Professor Frank Jotzo, an expert on climate change from Australian National University, said Australia would need to cut about 16 million tonnes of carbon emissions each year over the next eight years to reach its new goal of reducing emissions 43 per cent by 2030.

But the electricity sector is the only industry where Australia has seen consistent and continuing decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in recent years, Professor Jotzo said.

“What’s driving that is a very substantial shift away from coal-fired [electricity] generation … made up for by increases in renewable energy, principally solar,” he said. “A lot needs to change in Australia’s emissions profile in order to achieve that 2030 target.”

Despite the negative impact of climate change, the land and carbon sinks continue to absorb about half of the world’s carbon emissions. But they have registered a 70 per cent loss of efficiency and 4 per cent, effectively. Oceans are less able to dissolve carbon dioxide when temperatures are higher.

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The atmospheric level of CO2 is projected to average 417.2 ppm in 2022, 50 per cent above pre-industrial levels.

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