That followed a March 2020 report to the government by consultant Ernst & Young that concluded Victoria has the potential to produce a maximum of 830 petajoules of conventional gas from the Otway and Gippsland basins.

However, the report also suggested that extracting that gas would involve significant levels of exploration and development. For example, the maximum 715 petajoules believed to be available from the Otway Basin would require 138 exploration wells, 125 development wells, 46 discovery wells, and up to three new gas processing plants around the region.

The potential to extract gas from the Gippsland Basin is more limited. The study found it could produce a maximum of 115 petajoules, requiring 70 exploration wells resulting in seven discoveries.

That suggests, at best, Victoria might be able to boost its remaining known gas reserves by roughly a third. This represents a significant amount of gas, but it would take up to 25 years to develop, involving significant drilling and other politically fraught interventions right when the state is supposed to be moving away from fossil fuels.

Labor is claiming the plan could also run into legal strife. Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio on Monday said it could fall foul of Section 92 of the Constitution, which enshrines free trade between the states.

“The only way that Matthew Guy can deliver on his gas guarantee is to somehow physically separate out Victoria legally from the rest of the country, and technically also because our gas networks across the eastern seaboard are interconnected,” D’Ambrosio said.

Both Guy and opposition energy spokesman David Southwick on Monday suggested that such legal questions would be quickly sorted out if they took power on November 26, pointing to Western Australia’s reservation policy, which sets aside 15 per cent of gas produced in that state for domestic purposes.

Credit Suisse energy analyst Saul Kavonic questioned the purpose of Guy’s proposed reservation policy given there were no significant investments presently being made in developing onshore gas fields in Victoria.

“What new investment? What new gas projects?” Kavonic said.

The Grattan Institute’s energy program director Tony Wood told The Age this week: “I find it hard to see that it would actually do anything good, and I can think of reasons why it’s bordering on silly.”

Some gas producers were more positive. ASX-listed Lakes Blue Energy, which jointly holds an onshore exploration lease in Victoria’s Otway Basin, said it did not believe a local gas reservation scheme would imperil its prospects of progressing its Enterprise North project towards production.

Chief operating officer Tim O’Brien said demand from Victoria’s gas-reliant households and industrial users was significant enough that it wouldn’t need to sell gas interstate.

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“We’ve already committed to supplying Victoria first and foremost anyway,” O’Brien said. “We haven’t seen the details yet ... but we don’t see it as a major impost that will hold us back.”

Cooper Energy, which produces gas in Commonwealth waters, including off the coast of Victoria, and runs processing plants near Port Campbell and Orbost, said it was pleased that the state opposition had recognised the ongoing role of gas in the energy transition.

Cooper Energy chief executive David Maxwell said, “the government of the day needs to decide how to manage the energy transition to decide how to ensure adequate, reliable, competitively prices gas remains available for Victorian households and industrial users”.

“We continue to see strong demand for our gas, including in Victoria.”

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