Labor is promising a $1 billion surplus at the end of the next term if it wins the election despite an extra $3.3 billion of campaign spending announcements, according to a final tally of the government’s spending promises.

In a final pitch to voters ahead of Saturday’s election, Treasurer Tim Pallas declared that all of Labor’s campaign announcements have been fully funded, “providing a massive boost to the economy without privatising, increasing net debt or introducing new taxes”.

But figures, which have been independently checked by State Treasury, reveal the politically crucial 2025-26 surplus prediction is being delivered entirely by raiding the budget’s rainy day contingency reserve, which is designed to insulate the budget from economic shocks and squirrel cash for other unforseen events.

The tally shows 89 spending and savings initiatives announced by Labor during the campaign, collectively worth $3.27 billion over the next five years.

After factoring in the new spending announced since Treasury’s pre-election budget update released at the start of the campaign, Labor estimates the state is on track to record a deficit of $10.2 billion this financial year.

But it predicts the state’s precarious financial position will rapidly improve, with a $3.6 billion deficit expected for 2023-24 and then a relatively narrow $534 million deficit the year after that.

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Labor believes the state’s financial fortunes will have turned around in 2025-26, with a surplus prediction of just over $1 billion.

If delivered, this would allow the start to finally start paying down Victoria’s hulking public debt, which is expected to reach about $166 billion by June 2026, equivalent to about one-quarter of the total value of the state economy.

Today’s tally shows the budget would, in fact, remain deeply in deficit were it not for a $1.1 billion “drawdown” from hollow log contingencies built into the budget.