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Posted: 2022-12-21 05:26:51

COVID-19 cases have surged in China since stringent restrictions were lifted earlier this month and, given the country's financial might, there are concerns about the possible impact on the global economy.

China began dismantling its zero-COVID policy of lockdowns and testing after people protested against the curbs which kept the virus at bay among its 1.4 billion-strong population — at a big cost to its economy, the world's second largest.

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Tuesday that the loosening of controls would also "create some difficulties over the next months".

That's because the inevitable spike in infections will render more people temporarily unable to participate in the labour force.

What do we know about COVID-19 cases in China?

Cases are soaring across China and hospitals are struggling to keep up, with authorities conceding they can no longer accurately track cases. 

China's National Health Commission (NHC) has reported about 16,000 new COVID cases in the past week, but the World Health Organization (WHO) puts that figure closer to 150,000. 

The WHO says it has received reports of 443 deaths in the week to Tuesday, compared to just seven reported officially by China.  

"Many asymptomatic people are no longer participating in nucleic acid testing, so it is impossible to accurately grasp the actual number of asymptomatic infected people," the NHC said last week. 

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In Chongqing — a city of 30 million where authorities this week urged people with mild COVID symptoms to go to work — one worker told AFP their crematorium had run out of space to keep bodies.

"The number of bodies picked up in recent days is many times more than previously," a staffer said. 

"We are very busy, there is no more cold storage space for bodies.

"We are not sure [if it's related to COVID], you need to ask the leaders in charge."

How is China's economy coping? 

The World Bank has slashed China's growth forecasts and retail sales have plunged. 

Official data released on Thursday showed retail sales were down in November when China saw some of its highest infection numbers recorded, but that was even before restrictions were eased. 

"In November, local outbreaks spread to most provinces across the country, residents' travel decreased and consumption scenarios were restricted," Fu Jiaqi, a statistician from China's National Bureau of Statistics said.

"The sales of non-essential goods and gathering-based consumption were significantly affected."

Julian Evans-Pritchard and Zichun Huang, economists at Capital Economics, said while the move away from zero-COVID laid the groundwork for an eventual recovery in activity, the "transition period will prove quite disruptive".

The World Bank on Tuesday cut its China growth outlook for this year and next, citing the "ups and downs of the pandemic" alongside other factors including a shaky property sector.

Could the surge have a negative impact on the global economy?

There are divided opinions on this. 

The United States has flagged concerns the surge will impact trade and supply chains to other countries. 

Spokesperson for the US Department of State Ned Price said, given the size of China's economy, the "toll of the virus is of concern to the rest of the world". 

US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told Reuters on Tuesday that the US economy was "already being impacted" by China's latest COVID developments, as well as energy shortages in Europe.

But Professor Meijun Qian from the ANU College Of Business and Economics said it was important to remember there has been a history of tension between the US and China over trade. 

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