What’s in store this year

Authorities are turning their attention to increasing fire risks this year. Above-normal fire potential is expected in parts of Western Australia, southern Queensland and inland NSW because of increased fuel loads, a report by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council found.

Meanwhile, other parts of NSW, Victoria and the ACT face below-normal fire potential because of the amount of moisture in the landscape, the continued wet outlook and reduced fuel loads after the 2019-’20 bushfires.

The Sydney Morning Herald’s chief photographer Nick Moir, who has spent years documenting natural disasters, said the current weather systems were not producing strong enough westerly winds.

“In 2016, we had a lot of grass growth, but it wasn’t until 2017 that we started seeing grass fires because the winds weren’t there,” Moir said. “Not all the ingredients are there yet. The fuel is there, the temperatures but the dryness and the winds aren’t.”

Over the past three years, emergency services have dealt with floods rather than fires during the warming months. Unfortunately, this has delayed fire mitigation efforts.

In NSW, the RFS has conducted hazard reduction burns on only 8764 hectares since July. The agency’s target for this financial year is 318,891 hectares. In 2021-22, the agency treated 40,123 hectares, while in 2020-21 about 176,499 hectares were treated

The heavy rain has fuelled strong grass growth and Rogers said the state was facing its most significant grass fire threat in more than 20 years, particularly for western parts of NSW.

He said that, while the amount of water in the tableland would elevate the grass fire risk for years to come, areas that had burnt during the 2019-’20 bushfire season were regenerating faster than expected.

According to the fuel accumulation curve, a model used by fire authorities, the affected landscape should take eight to nine years before becoming a concern. But heavy rains over the past three years could cause these areas to burn again in five years. Maps from the NSW RFS show heavy grass fuel loads over huge parts of the state, stretching from western NSW to many coastal areas.

In December last year, the state had 850 grass fires. Since the start of this year, there have been 90.

Rogers said the bushfire threat would increase towards March. He added the best thing people could do to prepare for the increased risk was to keep their lawns as short as possible, clean out gutters, make sure there are limited combustible items around the house and have an evacuation plan.

Risk in Victoria

For Victorians, the risk of grass fires remains normal, said Victoria’s Country Fire Authority deputy chief officer bushfire management Alen Slijepcevic.

Maps by the state fire agency show the amount of grassland curing – a measure of the amount of dead grassland that has dried out or died – remains higher in the north.

Forest Fire Management Victoria chief fire officer Chris Hardman said that, despite wetter conditions this year, the agency had continued with its mitigation efforts on public land.

“We’ve also increased our use of mowing, slashing and mulching and expanded our network of strategic fuel breaks to better protect against bushfires. These strips of land are in the highest priority locations­ – close to towns, water catchments and sensitive environments,” Hardman said.

“Although we don’t expect many long-running or large forest fires this summer, areas across the north and west of Victoria may see increasing fire potential from mid-summer, especially in areas of high grass growth.

“Drier forests, woodlands and heathlands are also at risk of fires with the onset of hot and dry weather conditions.”

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