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Lawyers and coaches of Olympian Peter Bol fear the fight to clear his name has all but ruled out his chances of competing well at the Paris Games next year.
Key points:
- Peter Bol finished fourth in the 800m at the Tokyo Olympics, but his chances of making the next Games depend on a negative B sample
- News of the Australian runner's positive test for EPO was revealed in January, 18 months from the Paris Olympics
- Coach Dick Telford says even if the B sample is negative, Bol's preparation for Paris will be seriously disrupted
The 800m runner, who finished fourth at the Tokyo Games, could be exonerated from allegedly taking the banned substance EPO as early as March — that is if his B sample, to be analysed next month, comes back negative.
At least that is the hope of his US-based lawyer, Paul Greene.
"If the B sample does not confirm the A sample, then the case will be over," he told ABC Sport.
"And that is why I asked them (the Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority, or ASADA) to not announce this publicly at this point."
But news of the failed out-of-competition drug test, taken last October, was made public on January 20.
Bol was immediately placed on suspension. And with the ruling backdated to January 10, the 28-year-old cannot train or compete at any level.
If the test of Bol's B sample returns the same result, he will be banned for up to four years, meaning Paris 2024 and most likely Los Angeles 2028 are off the cards.
Bol is 29 next month. A lengthy ban could be career ending.
Celebrated Australian athletics coach Dick Telford, who has worked closely with Bol, said the psychological stress was already taking a toll.
"This is absolutely huge for Peter, who claims innocence, and I would back him all the way there, knowing Peter," Telford said.
"I could say that gives him no chance of running well in the Paris Olympics if this thing's hanging over his head for months to come.
"You've got to get everything right [at an Olympics]. You've got to get the physiology, the biomechanics, the psychology — everything's got to go your way. Any of those factors without [being] really spot on, you're not in the game."
Bol said he was in "total shock" when he found out his urine sample, taken at his home, had come back positive for synthetic EPO.
"It is critically important to convey with the strongest conviction I am innocent and have not taken this substance as I am accused," he wrote in a statement.
"I ask that everyone in Australia believe me and let the process play out."
Telford said: "I was very puzzled to tell you the truth, when I found out when the test was taken, the number of tests he'd done beforehand, which we presume, have all been negative."
Doping accusation 'difficult to overcome'
Bol's lawyer, Greene, who is also the founder of Global Sports Advocates, said although he has had clients exonerated in the past, the process has taken at least 12 months.
"Can you imagine what that year has been like for them to have to be provisionally suspended, pending the outcome of the case, and then ultimately winning."
"I think the stain and the scarlet letter of having been accused of doping, even for those athletes who ultimately are exonerated, is very difficult to overcome," Greene added.
One athlete who did was Bernard Lagat.
The champion middle-distance runner from Kenya returned a positive A sample for EPO like Bol did, but his B sample came back negative.
Lagat competed for Kenya at the Sydney 2000 Olympics, winning a bronze medal in the men's 1,500m, before failing his drug test in 2003.
After he was cleared, Lagat competed for both Kenya and the United States, still holding the American record for the men's 1,500m and 5,000m.
Phil Bellinger, a sport scientist at Griffith University, noted it had been 20 years since the Lagat case, and there had been very few like it in the subsequent decades.
"There is a minor chance of that test being positive due to some sort of error in the lab, although this isn't very common," Mr Bellinger said.
Why would an athlete take EPO?
EPO, or erythropoietin, is a hormone in the body that stimulates an increase in red blood cell formation.
Red blood cells carry oxygen around the body, so it is a key determinant of endurance performance.
Mr Bellinger said athletes might inject synthetic EPO to try to boost their red blood cell mass and therefore enhance their endurance performance.
"There'd certainly be benefits for a male 800 metre runner," Mr Bellinger said.
"They typically complete that event in around about a minute and 43 to 45 seconds, and that really challenges the body's ability to get oxygen around the body.
"If you can increase that oxygen carrying capacity, then you could indeed enhance performance by up to 3 per cent in that type of an event. And while that doesn't seem like much, that can be the difference between winning a medal and not," he added.
Lance Armstrong is probably the most prominent athlete who has tested positive or admitted to using EPO in the past 20 years.
Bellinger said: "Since tests have evolved, they've become much more precise in being able to identify EPO use."
He said athletes might also cycle on and off, or microdose, where they took a very small amount of synthetic EPO.
"If you do inject EPO in this microdose format, it is very hard to detect … it does require very precise testing," he said.
"So after 72 hours, it is very difficult to pick up."
Right now Bol's legal team only has a one-page summary sheet, but it has requested laboratory documents to begin building its case.
Bol's lawyer hopes to have the Australian back on the circuit in time for the World Athletics Championship in Budapest this August.
However, coach Telford is concerned any preparation between now and then will be insufficient.
"He needs his coach, he needs his manager, he needs his family, he needs his colleagues. And unfortunately doing that by himself makes the situation just too enormous for him."
Telford added that Bol's comeback, no matter the result, would be very difficult, but not impossible.
"I think Peter Bol's a very, very strong character. It's going to require a strong character in one of great resolve to actually come back and compete well," he said.
Meanwhile, Bol's accolade of West Australia's Young Australian of the Year will be upheld by the Australia Day Council of WA.
The organisation said it would let the process play out before making any decisions.