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Posted: 2023-02-05 22:31:49

 Ahead of its board meeting tomorrow, if the Reserve Bank wanted more evidence that its interest rate rises are starting to work then it got it.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released figures for the volume of retail trade over the last three months of last year — that is how much stuff Australians bought, not simply how much we spent.

It turns out that we purchased less than the quarter before, 0.2 per cent less to be precise.

But a lot of that spending was on food (+2.1 per cent).

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If you take that out, and also remove eating out and takeaway, then other retail volumes slumped by 2.1 per cent.

A 1.1% increase in retail prices across the board during the quarter kept retail turnover from falling more.

Interestingly, this inflation number is a lot lower than the consumer price index figure of 1.9 per cent recorded for the same quarter, and published last month.

The big declines in retail volumes were seen in the department store, "other retailing", clothing and footwear, and household goods categories — exactly the types of areas you might expect people to cut back on if they're starting to struggle with rising mortgage repayments.

CBA economist Stephen Wu concluded:

"There were clear signs of discretionary goods spending easing in today's data.

"Some of that reflects the pivot to discretionary services spending as many households travelled domestically and overseas over the festive period. But some of the softness also undoubtedly reflects cost of living pressures that are straining household budgets.

"The downturn in the housing market for both prices and turnover are playing a role too, particularly for household goods.

"The 0.2% decline in retail trade volumes show demand was already softening late last year – even before the full impact of rate hikes occurred. With another rate hike expected at the February 2023 RBA Board meeting, and a large stock of fixed rate debt due to rollover over this year, demand will only weaken further from here.

"The upshot is that it is less likely sustained price rises can occur."

Inflation problem solved? Perhaps not yet, but another sign that we're on the way there.

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