Add Category
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates for the 10th consecutive meeting, taking the cash rate target to 3.6 per cent.
Key points:
- The cash rate target of 3.6 per cent is the highest since May 2012
- The 0.25 of a percentage point rate rise will add around $77 a month to repayments on a $500,000 mortgage
- RBA governor Philip Lowe said the board expects to raise interest rates further
That is the highest level for the central bank's benchmark interest rate since May 2012.
RateCity said the latest increase would add $77 a month to repayments on a $500,000 home loan and double that on a $1-million mortgage.
Borrowers with $500,000 mortgages will soon be facing monthly mortgage repayments nearly $1,000 larger than a year ago, before the RBA started lifting the cash rate in May 2022.
RateCity's data shows the average existing owner-occupier variable rate will rise to 6.36 per cent, for people who have not negotiated a lower rate or refinanced since the start of the rate hikes.
For recent borrowers or those who have haggled with their bank, a competitive variable rate is expected to be around 5 per cent for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest, with fewer than 10 ongoing variable rates likely to be available below that level.
'The RBA could pause'
Those mortgage repayments are likely to become larger still, with RBA governor Philip Lowe flagging that at least one more rate increase will be necessary.
"The board expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary," he said in his post-meeting statement.
"In assessing when and how much further interest rates need to increase, the board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market."
The Commonwealth Bank's head of Australian economics Gareth Aird argued Mr Lowe's statement marked a "very important shift in forward guidance".
"This change does not preclude the RBA from raising the cash rate more than once from here. But it means that the board is not convinced that it needs to hike the cash rate multiple times from here," he wrote.
"The reference to assessing 'when' means that the RBA board has not yet made their mind up around increasing the cash rate in April.
"Markets should treat the April board meeting as 'live' and the RBA could pause."
'Continuing to raise rates risks recession'
The general tone of Mr Lowe's statement appears less forceful than it was just a month ago, in the wake of recent weaker-than-expected GDP, employment and wages data.
"At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target and recent data suggest a lower risk of a cycle in which prices and wages chase one another," Mr Lowe noted.
"The board, however, remains alert to the risk of a prices-wages spiral, given the limited spare capacity in the economy and the historically low rate of unemployment."
Betashares chief economist David Bassanese believes there will only be one more rate hike.
"My base case remains that the RBA will again raises interest rates again next month, but then pause for at least three to six months to assess the impact of its work given the inherent lags in which monetary policy impacts on the economy," he wrote in a note.
"I also then anticipate sufficient signs of slowing in both the Australian and global economy will emerge to allow the RBA to unveil its first interest rate cut on November 7, on Melbourne Cup day."
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said the RBA had raised rates at the fastest pace since the late 1980s, when households had just over a third of the debt burden they do now, and he argued there should be no further increases.
"We think that the RBA has done enough and should now pause, and that is our base case for next month," he noted.
"Continuing to raise rates from here risks plunging the economy into a recession."
Speaking in Parliament, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the government was doing what it could to help improve supply chains and provide targeted cost of living relief in a way that will not further stimulate demand and inflation.
"This was expected, it was flagged, the markets anticipated it, but it will still sting," he said of today's rate rise.
"Last week's national accounts showed that Australian households spent about $20 billion in mortgage interest payments in the December quarter, compared to about $11 billion in the same period a year earlier."
Loading form...