New York: On a dilapidated street corner in Manhattan, a few metres away from the courthouse where Donald Trump could soon become the first former US president to face criminal charges, six words are chalked into the pavement in large white capital letters: NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW.

Several blocks uptown, steel barricades surround the golden opulence of Trump Tower as a police helicopter hovers in the sky, patrolling Fifth Avenue for signs of civil unrest.

And across New York, Americans are bracing themselves for a hotly anticipated grand jury decision on whether to indict Trump over alleged hush payments to a porn star who claims they had sex once.

“He deserves to be held accountable for every crime he’s done,” says Mike Santos, a Harlem resident who is sitting on a park bench wearing a T-shirt with an image of Trump in a prisoner’s outfit.

“Why is that?” asks a woman named Christine who flew from her home in San Diego this week to show her support for Trump. “Because MSNBC and the liberal media told you so?”

“No,” Santos replies. “Because I’m convinced he did the wrong thing in this case. He also started an insurrection. We can all have our differences when it comes to Trump, but when you instigate trouble and throw kerosene on the fire, that’s not good for the country.”

Four days after Trump issued an incendiary social media post claiming he would be arrested on Tuesday and urging his supporters to take to the streets on his behalf, very little has shifted and Americans continue to wonder what happens next.

TV camera crews have sprouted up on the footpaths around the office of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who is overseeing the case. Small groups of demonstrators have come and gone, from a woman wearing a Trump mask and fake diaper, to a man holding up a sign claiming that Bragg is corrupt and controlled by billionaire Democratic donor George Soros.

And a grand jury meeting that was scheduled to take place on Wednesday (US time) as part of the investigation was cancelled unexpectedly, suggesting that any indictment would come on Thursday at the earliest.

While the reasons for the cancellation remains unclear, reports suggested the grand jury may need to hear from at least one more witness before being asked to vote on whether to indict. If indictment takes place, Trump is not expected to appear in court until sometime the following week.

Nonetheless, such a move would be unprecedented and the culmination of an investigation that has loomed over Trump for nearly five years.

Never in US history has a former president been charged with a crime, let alone one who is a Republican frontrunner for a presidential race.

Trump, however, continues to maintain his innocence, posting on his Truth Social online platform that “there was no crime, no affair, no bookkeeping, error or misdemeanour, no ‘nothing’.”

The probe centres on a $US130,000 ($193,000) payment to porn star Stormy Daniels in the final stretch of the 2016 election race between Trump and Hillary Clinton. Trump’s then-attorney and “fixer” Michael Cohen took out a loan to prevent Daniels from going public with her allegations of a 2006 affair.

Trump then allegedly reimbursed Cohen – who has since become a key witness against him – but allegedly falsified business records and failed to report the payment properly, which is a violation of the law.

The case is contentious because it is seen as the weakest of all the investigations into Trump, some of which go to the heart of American democracy.

The other probes include a Department of Justice investigation into the events of the January 6 Capitol attack; a Georgia-based investigation into election interference in that state; and another Justice Department investigation into the handling of classified documents.

Republicans have rallied around Trump by attacking Bragg, a Democrat, and citing the matter as yet another example of a law enforcement agency being “weaponised” for political purposes.

Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll that concluded on Tuesday found about half of respondents believed the investigation was politically motivated, even though 62 per cent, including a third of Republicans, said it was also believable that Trump could have falsified business records and committed fraud.

What happens next is anyone’s guess. Veteran election analyst Charlie Cook, founder of the non-partisan newsletter The Cook Report, said he believed an indictment against Trump could galvanise his base, which represents about 30 per cent of Republican primary voters and caucus delegates. These are the members who will ultimately get a say in who becomes the party’s presidential candidate next year.

As for the bulk of Republicans who aren’t necessary die-hard Trump fans?

“They may look at him and decide he can’t possibly win so it’s time to go in a different direction,” says Cook.

“This case isn’t going to change many minds about Donald Trump’s character, but they may just decide he’s not the right horse to bet on for 2024.”

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