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Posted: 2023-07-19 22:07:38

We're starting to get some reactions from economists.

They say these stronger-than-expected employment figures show the labour market is still full steam ahead. And that means the Reserve Bank will be keenly watching next Wednesday's June quarter inflation figures.

"Labour market indicators are in a very strong place right across the board. The employment-to-population ratio is historically high, while unemployment and underemployment are at, or near historic lows. This is unambiguously good.

"However, the strength of the labour market will continue to keep upward pressure on wages and inflation. The Reserve Bank is not in a position where it can tolerate any upside surprises to the inflation outlook, and we expect to see two more rate hikes in the coming months."

"With the labour market still running red hot, we think the RBA has more work to do.

"Job vacancies data published yesterday do suggest that the jobs market will cool in the near term. However, the data still point to the unemployment rate being well below 4.5% — the RBA’s estimate of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment.

"All told, we’re happy with our forecast that the RBA will deliver two more 25bp rate hikes before it brings its tightening cycle to a close."

"Today’s second successive stronger-than-expected labour market report will keep pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift interest rates further. 

"But the case for a rate rise next month is not yet a done deal, as it will also depend on the outcome of next week’s all-important June quarter CPI result.

"Although the sheer size of the employment gains can be partly explained by a strong rebound in labour supply (higher immigration and workforce participation), the impressive aspect of recent labour market reports is that all these newly available workers appear to be easily finding jobs.

"The overall strength in employment is also likely to help underpin household incomes, countering some of the impact of higher interest rates on spending power. 

"To be sure, hiring intentions have eased, but they remain at a high level. Meanwhile, the RBA has likely taken encouragement from some lower-than-expected global inflation results in recent weeks, such as in the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States.

"All that said, next week’s CPI result remains critical."

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