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Russia has pounded Ukraine's southern cities with drones and missiles this week, damaging critical port infrastructure and grain terminals.
The attack destroyed at least 60,000 tons of grain, in what appears to be a tit-for-tat move for a torn-up grain deal.
Both Ukraine and Russia have declared the Black Sea between them a war zone and threaten to treat any ship in the area to be a legitimate military target.
Experts say this latest escalation in the war could have far-reaching impacts on global food security. Here's what to know.
Why is Russia targeting Ukraine port cities?
Russia says the latest air strikes on Ukrainian ports are revenge for an attack on a crucial bridge linking the country to the annexed Crimean peninsula.
Dr Olga Oleinikova, the director of the Ukraine Democracy Initiative at the University of Technology in Sydney, says the other reason is that Russia "wants to create as much pressure as they can on the West".
On Monday, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative that saw more than 32 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain exported to 45 different countries in the past year.
A Kremlin spokesperson said the deal would only resume if Russia's demands to ship more of its own food and fertiliser were met.
Although Russia has extended the deal after making threats to withdraw before, Professor Anna Nagurney — a supply chain expert at the University of Massachusetts Amherst — says "this time may be different".
The Russian strikes over the past few days have caused extensive damage to one of Ukraine's largest ports, Odesa.
"It may severely limit Ukraine’s ability to export through the port in the future – deal or no deal," Dr Nagurney says.
"I believe Russian leader Vladimir Putin is weaponising food at a time of growing hunger."
That's also the consensus among Ukrainian officials.
"The enemy is continuing terror, and it's undoubtedly related to the grain deal," a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military's Operational Command South says.
What is the grain deal and why is it so important?
The deal was brokered by the United Nations (UN) and Türkiye almost 12 months ago to allow food to be safely exported from Ukrainian ports during the ongoing war with Russia.
It was aimed at alleviating a global food crisis and has helped keep global food prices stable.
Dr Nagurney says Ukraine is the "breadbasket of Europe" as it is a major of supplier of wheat, barley, sunflower products and corn to the continent, as well as developing countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
She says a key reason Ukraine has become such an important part of the global food supply chain is because it has some of the world's most fertile soil.
Before the war, the country also had year-round access to ice-free harbours in the Black Sea, making it a reliable food source for more than 400 million people around the world.
The World Food Program (WFP), which delivers food aid around the world, sourced 80 per cent of its grain requirements from Ukraine this year.
The Black Sea grain deal made it possible for the WFP to continue to transport wheat to countries struggling with food security.
It also reduced food prices by more than 23 per cent since March 2022, according to UN estimates.
How does it affect the rest of the world?
Grain prices have already jumped since Russia left the deal.
Global wheat futures — an indicator of prices for the coming season — made their biggest one-day jump since Russia invaded Ukraine 17 months ago, prompting fears it is going to become unaffordable for the world's poorest countries.
Dr Nagurney says a study she co-published in May showed "just how vital" the Black Sea ports are to ensuring Ukrainian grain gets out to the world.
She says before the war 90 per cent of Ukraine's agricultural exports were transported on the Black Sea.
"While Ukraine also ships its grain and other food over land through Europe, doing so costs a lot more and takes more time than sea exports," she says.
"And transportation costs over land were rising because of the war as a result of mines, the destruction of agricultural infrastructure and other challenges."
Dr Oleinikova predicts places like Afghanistan and Yemen are going to bear the brunt of the latest attacks on Russian port cities.
"All low-income countries will struggle with access to foods and necessities," she says.
She says no ship has left port yet, and it remains to be seen whether Russia will change its mind.
Can Ukraine exports continue without using the Black Sea?
Dr Oleinikova says Ukraine is already exploring alternative routes for ships, including through Romania using the Danube River.
"There are ways to do it through Romania and other countries which give a direct link to the West," she says.
However, shipping via other routes is slower and more expensive.
"I only hope goodwill prevails and somehow Ukraine’s vital exports are allowed to continue," Dr Nagurney says.
"We saw Russia pulling out of this deal last year as well, so it's not something new."
Back then, it was Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who changed Russian President Vladimir Putin's mind.
The two are expected to meet again in Türkiye in August, sparking hope Mr Erdoğan can help negotiate another deal.
“Russia has some expectations. If these are overcome, Russia is in favour of the active work of this grain corridor,” the Turkish president says.
“We know that [Putin] has some expectations from Western countries. Western countries need to take action on this issue.”
ABC/Wires