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Posted: 2023-07-24 21:43:14

China has announced a number of stimulus measures to boost its slowing economy.

China's economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, unveiled plans to promote private investment.

And China's top decision making body, the Politburo, said it would "step up economic policy adjustments" to expand domestic demand and lift confidence.

"Currently China's economy is facing new difficulties and challenges, which mainly arise from insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in the operation of some enterprises, risks and hidden dangers in key areas, as well as a grim and complex external environment," Xinhua quoted the  Politburo as saying at a meeting chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

China's economy slowed down from April to June because of weaker demand at home and abroad, although it did expand by 6.3 per cent over the year to June, a step up from the year to March.

Economists at Barclays say while the Politburo meeting signalled more support for the economy, it fell short of offering large scale stimulus.

"We view this as a signal that the government would stabilise growth around its target but refrain from an outsized policy response, given the top leaders' intended shift in focus to quality growth."

Barclay's Yingke Zhou, Ying Zhang, and Jian Chang are predicting more targeted stimulus instead of the big spending packages of the past. 

They expect further interest rate cuts, more special bond issuance by local governments, and other measures including lending by policy banks to support infrastructure investment, especially green infrastructure investment.

"We think the PBOC (People's Bank of China) has already entered a rate cutting cycle, and expect a 10 basis point (0.1 percentage point) cut every quarter through the first quarter of 2024 to reduce financing costs in the economy, along with 40 to 60 basis points of mortgage rate cuts for both existing and new housing loans."

They also expect the central bank to further lower funding costs for financial institutions.

The Politburo also called for measures to encourage spending on big ticket items including cars, electronic products and furniture, as well as promoting spending on services like sports and leisure.

China's Commerce Ministry has already announced a plan to boost consumption of household goods, which includes a directive to local governments to increase the renovation of old homes.

Graph showing interest rate cuts in China
China interest rates (Wind, Barclays Research)
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