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As everyone knows, there is more than one way to make AFL finals — or miss them.
Some teams make a late charge and just fall short, leaving other sides to breathe a sigh of relief they won't have to face them in September.
Others limp into the finals, or the top four, having assured their position previously — or simply get lucky with a few late results.
And still others hit their stride at the right time and gain confidence and ladder positions as they maximise their chances ahead of a possible big finals run.
So who has the momentum as we close in on the September action, limiting our focus to the 12 teams who have a chance of getting there? And will the ones who have it now, even make it?
Let's look at the order of teams from the past five rounds of football.
1. Carlton (fifth)
Last five rounds: 5-0, percentage 149.2 Remaining games: GC (A) / GWS (H)
There is no argument about the form team of the AFL after round 22.
For this exercise, we are looking at the last five games, and the Blues have been perfect in that time frame.
Indeed, Michael Voss's men have won their past eight, charging into contention.
They have the third-best attack — even in the absence of key forward Harry McKay — and the stingiest defence since round 18. It's not just the numbers, either.
It's who they've beaten, and how — Port Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda and Melbourne, plus the bottom-of-the-ladder Eagles.
They still need one more win to lock in a first finals spot since 2013, but there is even a very outside chance they could steal the double chance if the Demons slip up. Assuming they do make it, they will fear no-one.
2) Sydney (seventh)
Last five rounds: 5-0, percentage 116.0 Remaining games: ADEL (A) / MELB (H)
This has been a crazy season for the Swans, who have struggled mightily at stages and looked back at their best at others. Now they have hit their straps at the right time, with the highest-scoring attack among the 13 remaining contenders — although their defence (ninth-best) could use some tightening.
They haven't had as strong a schedule as the Blues, although they have beaten Fremantle in Perth and knocked off finals rivals the Western Bulldogs and Essendon and GWS.
It's still possible that both they and the team who thrashed them in last year's grand final, the Cats, finish outside the eight.
But the Swans have a solid recent record against the Crows, and if they can knock off the Demons at the SCG in round 24, they will most likely finish sixth and have a home final to start.
And then, who knows?
3) Melbourne (fourth)
Last five rounds: 4-1, percentage 115.3 Remaining games: HAW (H) / SYD (A)
The pieces are coming together for the Demons, highlighted by Clayton Oliver's big 27-possession, 10-clearance, 13-tackle return on the weekend.
They have the third-best record over the past five rounds, including finals-like victories over Brisbane and Adelaide, and a controversial loss to Carlton at the MCG.
The Dees have a virtually identical for and against to Sydney, with the second-best attack and the joint ninth-best defence. That could prove an issue, if they have to face Collingwood in week one of the finals, with a loss potentially setting up a cross-over prelim in Brisbane or Adelaide.
The key to it all is getting Melbourne's engine running at top gear. And with Gawn, Petracca and Co firing, that seems a likely occurrence.
But first they have to avoid a slip-up against the Hawks, plus a difficult trip to the SCG.
4) St Kilda (sixth)
Last five rounds: 3-2, percentage 107.8) Remaining games: GEEL (H) / BRIS (A)
There are four teams separated by percentage between fourth and seventh on the form ladder, and given the identities of the other three, it's a surprise that the highest ranked are the Saints.
What will perhaps come as no surprise is that the Ross Lyon-coached team has been driven by the third-best defence in the last five rounds.
In terms of actual form in the games played, their win over the Hawks looks better in light of recent developments, and a six-goal haul from Max King against the Tigers is great timing for the Saints' attack. But a narrow win over the Kangaroos and a loss to the Suns suggest they are well down the list of potential contenders.
If St Kilda finish with a win over the Cats at Docklands and success against the Lions at Fortress Gabba, they really will go into September with momentum. Lose both, however, and they're probably out.
5) Collingwood (first)
Last five rounds: 3-2, percentage 101.8 Remaining games: BRIS (H) / ESS (A)
As befits a 3-2 record, it's been mixed for the ladder leaders, who have the fourth-best attack and the 10th-best defence.
A trademark thriller of a win over Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval and a victory over Geelong show that the Pies we expect can still turn up.
However, losses to Hawthorn and Carlton, along with injuries to Nick Daicos and Darcy Moore, have had an impact on the team's sense of inevitability for the flag.
They have an ability to score plenty, but conceding nearly 90 points a game is a bit of a worry.
A win over the Lions at Docklands would sew up top spot, and possibly lead to a series of names being managed in the final round against Essendon.
But the bottom line is that, form ladder or not, things are basically in the Magpies' hands — they should end up with the ability to have two home finals at the MCG to make the grand final.
6) GWS (10th)
Last five rounds: 3-2, percentage 99.3 Remaining games: ESS (H) / CARL (A)
If we'd done this exercise a fortnight ago, the Giants would have been much closer to the top, with their seven-game winning streak putting them right in the mix.
At the recent end, wins over the Crows in Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs in Ballarat showed they were up for the battle. They are at the middle of the pack in both attack and defence, reliant on bursts of inspiration at both ends from the likes of Toby Greene and Sam Taylor.
The issue is that consecutive losses — at home to cross-town rivals Sydney and a thumping from Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval — have dented their confidence.
They need back-to-back wins to qualify for the finals, and while they are a good chance to beat the Bombers, Carlton at Docklands is likely to be a different proposition.
7) Brisbane (second)
Last five rounds: 3-2, percentage 94.8 Remaining games: COLL (A) / ST K (H)
The Lions' last five rounds have shown them at their best — and worst.
Heart-stopping wins over Geelong and Adelaide on their home deck reminded everyone how difficult it is to beat them at the Gabba.
But their comprehensive loss to the Suns at Carrara not only gave the home side rare bragging rights in the Q-Clash, it threatened to end the Lions' top-two hopes.
A 10th-best attack and sixth-best defence isn't anything to write home about.
The knee injury to Jack Gunston is poor timing, but the return of Oscar McInerney adds a key element to Brisbane's chances. A showdown with the Pies at Docklands looms large.
A loss could well hand a top-two spot to the Power, but a win could earn them two home finals of their own at the Gabba, and a drop in the odds for Brisbane to make the grand final.
8) Western Bulldogs (8th)
Last five rounds: (2-3, percentage 125.1) Remaining games: WC (H) / GEEL (A)
A summary of where the Bulldogs are at could be summarised by the phrase "possession is nine-tenths of the law". The Bulldogs have a finals spot right now, but there are a few permutations possible over the final two rounds.
Some narrow losses and big wins have given the Dogs the second-best percentage of the contenders in the last five rounds, and the second-best defence in that time frame — although they could have done without their three-point defeat to Hawthorn in Launceston.
The key to their success on the real ladder also lies in percentage. Aside from Geelong, who are half a game back because of their draw, the Bulldogs have the advantage over all their nearest rivals except the Crows.
A round 23 match against the Eagles could well narrow the gap or even put them in front. A close loss to Geelong might then prove enough, depending on other results, but a win over the Cats would definitely secure a spot in September.
9) Geelong (11th)
Last five rounds: 2-3, percentage 116.8 Remaining games: STK (A) / WB (H)
The welcome return to form by Jeremy Cameron nearly got the Cats over Collingwood on Friday night, but the ups and downs of the past five rounds have taken a toll on the defending premiers.
Injuries to Cam Guthrie and in particular Mark Blicavs have left them in strife at the wrong time of the season — the ruck will be problematic for Chris Scott's team.
The sixth-best attack and fourth-best defence of the contenders (over five rounds) leaves them there or thereabouts, but neither of their remaining games are easy — facing St Kilda at Docklands before hosting the Bulldogs at Kardinia Park in round 24.
Geelong would love another couple of bags of seven from Cameron but, as things stand, the Cats appear to be a fair chance of missing out.
10) Adelaide (12th)
Last five rounds: 2-3, percentage 113.0 Remaining games: SYD (H) / WC (A)
The Crows somehow find themselves still in with a shot with two rounds to go, after a couple of big wins and some "almosts" that just add to the frustration about the team.
A crushing win over Port Adelaide lifted morale, but then as everyone knows, form has no bearing on the showdowns.
The narrow losses to both Melbourne and Brisbane, however, continued to pile up the evidence that the Crows are a win-at-home, lose-away kind of team this year.
If they can beat the Swans at Adelaide Oval, a final-round fill-up against the Eagles in Perth could see them sneak in — but the problem is even if they do make it, they will almost certainly have to go on the road the whole way and that seems an unlikely task.
11) Essendon (9th)
Last five rounds: 2-3, percentage 76.2 Remaining games: GWS (A) / COLL (H)
The fact that the Bombers' two wins in the last five rounds were against the bottom two sides on the real ladder (by a combined 10 points) shows why they are where they are on the form ladder.
The three losses were against the defending premiers (by 77 points), the Bulldogs (by 41) and the Swans (by 2). The Bombers have the worst attack by some margin in the time frame and the second-worst defence.
Before the last five rounds, Essendon was in fifth spot on the actual ladder. Now they are ninth — a clear sign that the team is going in one direction, and not the right one.
Can they turn it around? Unlikely, but they will need to start with a big win over GWS at Giants Stadium, and then hope Collingwood has wrapped up the top spot ahead of their round 24 finale in front of a Bombers-friendly crowd at the MCG.
12) Port Adelaide (3rd)
Last five rounds: 1-4, percentage 84.0 Remaining games: FREM (A) / RICH (H)
At one point this season, Port Adelaide was top of the form ladder after stringing together 13 wins in a row. Now the Power sit at the bottom as we approach the finals.
Taking the positive view, Port Adelaide's sole win in the last five games was on the weekend against GWS. Might they be turning the corner? Balancing that, the four losses all came against finals or key flag rivals in the Blues, Magpies, Cats and Crows.
They have the worst defensive record for the period under the spotlight, a stat that will need to be cleaned up if they are to make use of the double chance.
Given the Lions could well lose to Collingwood this weekend, wins against Fremantle in Perth and Richmond at home could leave the Power with a straight path to the grand final at Adelaide Oval.
With injuries and form questions, though, it's nowhere near a guarantee they would take advantage of the opportunity if it presented itself.
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