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For years, people have said it — if Toby Greene was at a Victorian club, he would be feted as one of the superstars of the AFL.
Today, those pundits have been proved wrong, or at least shown that it doesn't matter. The man who is the beating heart behind the Greater Western Sydney Giants is undeniably one of the superstars of the league, and has been for some time.
But now, thanks to a team of selectors, he's also the All-Australian captain and has secured a prime spot on football's honour board forever.
If you'd told people even two or three years ago that this was in Greene's future, you'd have been politely dismissed — or openly mocked.
He was a scrappy, ball-hungry young man from Melbourne who came through the AFL talent hub that is the Oakleigh Chargers.
You always knew why he was on a team, why coaches wanted him.
He was a force of nature on the field, driven, capable of big things — but from early days it was clear he had a level of volatility that had him on a collision course with authority.
He was nominated for the Rising Star in his debut season of 2012, but ineligible to win the award because of an early bumping charge against Brisbane's Jed Adcock.
Bumps, physicality, confrontations were all par for the course with the fiery Greene, who was as likely to end up at the tribunal as he was to kick a bag of goals.
There were particular incidents that stood out over the years.
Raking his hand over the face of Marcus Bontempelli in 2019, then doing the same to Lachie Neale at the bottom of a pack the following week, which resulted in his suspension for GWS' preliminary final against Collingwood.
His spitting action at Richmond's Anthony Miles in 2015, not to mention the contact made with umpire Matt Stevic in 2021 that led to a three-match ban, upped to six matches on appeal.
There was the controversy over Greene's "studs-up" marking style, where his critics said he was going beyond the normal allowable protective fend against defenders — in one case he kicked the Bulldogs' Luke Dahlhaus in the face, in others he just left opponents reminders he was there.
The criticism mounted until the AFL introduced a rule change in 2019, known unofficially as the "Toby Greene rule", to ban raising the boot in a marking contest in a way that exposed others to injury.
In all, Greene racked up nearly $30,000 worth of fines and 13 weeks of suspensions from 22 charges. Not what you would call captain material.
He was a lightning rod for everyone from AFL pundits to opposition fans. In the highlight of his career, when he and GWS confounded everyone to reach the AFL grand final in 2019, Greene was left to grin and bear it in the parade, sitting in the back of the truck alongside Jeremy Cameron as he copped constant abuse from fans throughout the route.
In the aftermath of the game, and the Giants' 89-point thrashing by Richmond, Greene had to deal with family issues as his estranged father was arrested for headbutting a police officer and was later sentenced to nine months' jail.
Change comes to GWS, Greene
What makes a leader or captain?
A look at the names of All-Australian captains from recent years gives an idea of who is seen as meriting the honour.
Tom Hawkins. Max Gawn. Patrick Dangerfield. Nat Fyfe. Joel Selwood. Gary Ablett. The kind of elite, experienced players who win big awards, are acknowledged as leaders and game-breakers, and people who bring their clubs with them, and in some cases carry them on their backs at vital times.
Greene had been acknowledged as elite for his on-field work before. He made the All-Australian Team in 2016, and again in 2021. Greene won the Kevin Sheedy Medal for GWS best and fairest in 2016, and was the Giants' top goalkicker back in 2017, level with spearhead Jeremy Cameron and forward Johnathan Patton.
His repeated run-ins with officials, however, were clearly a stumbling block. Greene was reportedly told by GWS after the umpire incident in 2021 that he needed to tone down his actions and avoid more suspensions if he wanted a chance to be an AFL Hall of Famer after the end of his career.
Diving deeper, between 2017 and 2022 GWS played a total of 137 games. Greene took the field for only 93 of them, thanks to injuries and suspensions.
Whether it was fears for his legacy, or another reason, Greene did change. You could never describe him as an innocent on the field, as he still has hints of his former combustible self, but he has not been charged since 2021.
The Giants underwent more big changes last year, with the departure of coach Leon Cameron after nine seasons at the helm. GWS finished 16th at the end of 2022, and looked set for a possible rebuild.
However the Giants have bounced back in 2023, coming home with a rush to make the finals, thanks to a win over Carlton in the final round.
While the improvement has been across the board, one big reason for the Giants making it to September is Greene.
He booted a career-best 60 goals for the season, and took 41 marks inside 50, his best result since 2017.
He still takes the team on his back when needed, like when he kicked four goals in the third quarter to put the Giants on the way to beat the Bulldogs in round 20.
Greene remains a focal point on any football ground — the most decisive, the most likely to change a game, the one player you can't give a metre's space to, the one who can conjure something out of nothing, the one who can slalom his way through a pack of defenders like it's nothing.
He has balance, poise, power and speed — and most of all, the timing of knowing when something has to happen for his team, and then delivering.
He still thrills the crowds — and if you ask opposing fans these days they might, in an unguarded moment, tell you that although he gives them heartburn, they would love to have him on their team.
But it's not just on the field that Greene has changed people's opinions.
His efforts were acknowledged at the start of 2022, when Greene was named co-captain of the Giants along with Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly.
This year, under new coach Adam Kingsley, Greene was named sole captain, and the role has seemed to suit him.
Clearly he is not just a leader on the park. In the leadership announcement, Kingsley said he loved watching how much time Greene spent with younger players, and described him as one of the "most diligent and hard-working players I've ever seen".
As he gets ready for a milestone birthday — he turns 30 on Monday of grand final week — Greene is showing no signs of slowing down.
His presence is probably the primary reason why the seven other teams hope the Giants get eliminated in the first week of finals — because they don't want to see what GWS can do with momentum and a fired-up Greene in charge.
Regardless, Wednesday night's announcement shows how far he has come in his career, and puts a stamp on the Giants — and now All-Australian — skipper as someone whose name will be remembered long after his playing days are over.
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