One of the few expected bright spots is exports of minerals tied to the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector. Exports of lithium are expected to jump by a fifth by 2024-25, although the value of those exports is forecast to fall due to an expected drop in prices.

The lower prices for key exports, the Industry Department noted, would take some pressure off global inflation, which soared after Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

At the monthly level, inflation in Australia pushed up to 5.2 per cent in August, largely because of the jump in oil prices that has flowed through to the pump. Last week, the national capital city average price for a litre of unleaded petrol climbed to 211.8¢. A month earlier, it had been under $1.90.

But there are some signs that overall inflation pressures are easing. The closely watched Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge showed no change in consumer prices through September.

The gauge, which closely tracks the official measure of inflation, showed overall prices across all household groups, including pensioners and working families, were flat last month. Its measures of underlying inflation, which exclude volatile items such as oil, also showed further declines.

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Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock will chair her first board meeting on Tuesday. Financial markets and most economists expect official interest rates to remain at 4.1 per cent.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver believes the Reserve Bank’s next move on rates will be a cut, probably in June next year.

He said the RBA’s previous rate increases had reduced the capacity of a borrower to pay for a property by almost a third since April last year, putting at risk the entire housing market.

“The rapid reversal in the capacity to pay since May last year due to the surge in mortgage rates threatens a downwards adjustment in home prices at some point unless incomes rise dramatically or mortgage rates fall dramatically,” Oliver said.

“There is a high risk of increased listings by distressed sellers – this may come from variable rate borrowers and the rollover of fixed-rate mortgages.”

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