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“It can’t stop the general trend that the motherland will and must eventually be reunified.”
The reality is that the idea of unification has become so repulsive to 92.6 per cent of voters in Taiwan, according to monthly polls by the National Chengchi University, that no major party is now pursuing it. Even Hou, Beijing’s favoured candidate from the KMT, ruled out holding talks on the issue during his presidency.
A map depicting Taiwan as part of China on Houyan Island. Credit: Sanghee Liu
Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong, where it pledged to support the “One Country, Two Systems” agreement only to wipe out free elections in 2022, put an end to any peaceful dream of unification with Taiwan.
The worry is now that it will use other means to achieve it. Already, Beijing sends fighter jets and warships towards the Taiwan Strait in a daily campaign of harassment.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has spent a decade fostering Chinese nationalism, creating a generation of young Chinese who believe unifying with Taiwan by the time they are 50 is their destiny. They would prefer to avoid war if they can, but believe they might have to start firing missiles if necessary.
“If China’s economy becomes strong enough and Taiwanese become our employees, it will be easier,” said one 23-year-old university student on Houyan Island after looking through the binoculars at Taiwan.
“We have been advocating for peace for a long time, but we also need to make it clear to them that we have bottom lines and will not keep conceding.”
University students on Houyan island pose at the closest point between the mainland and Taiwan’s main island. Taiwan is 68 nautical miles away from Houyan. Credit: Sanghee Liu
This is the challenge for Taiwan and for its supporters around the world, including Australia: maintaining the status quo through diplomatic and military deterrence. The imperfect solution allows Taiwan to continue to be self-governed without declaring formal international independence and risking a rash response from Beijing.
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On Saturday, the status quo let 14 million people vote, walk their dogs through Da’an forest park on a glorious winter’s day and stop for cabbage and pork dumplings to complain about rising house prices with friends.
As one diplomat in Taipei who was not authorised to speak publicly said: “it’s comprehensively superior to the alternative”.
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