China’s foreign ministry said it appreciated and welcomed the Nauru government’s decision to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. “China is willing to open a new chapter in bilateral relations with Nauru on the basis of its one-China principle.”

The decision was announced two days after Taiwan’s presidential election where the Democratic People’s Party was elected for an unprecedented third term. The DPP and its candidate Lai Ching-te campaigned heavily on resisting Chinese influence over the island, which the Chinese government claims as its own. The Chinese Communist Party has never governed the island but has maintained unification with its neighbour is inevitable and has not ruled out using force if necessary.

Nauru’s shift to Beijing is likely to have an impact on diplomatic relations in the Pacific. The former president of Nauru, Baron Waqa, will become the Secretary-General of the Pacific Islands Forum this year. Adeang was a cabinet minister in Waqa’s government in 2013.

“This has implications which go beyond the bilateral relationship between Nauru and China and extend to the Pacific Islands Forum,” Anna Powles, a Pacific security expert at Massey University in New Zealand said on X.

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“The likelihood that Nauru would switch recognition from Taiwan to China has been on the cards for a while; the speed with which Australia pursued the Falepili agreement with Tuvalu last year reflected concerns that Tuvalu was under pressure to switch recognition to China.”

In November, Australia and Tuvalu signed the Falepili climate and migration agreement that would allow 280 Tuvaluans to migrate to Australia each year to mitigate the risk of rising sea levels in the Pacific nation as well as a pledge to provide support during natural disasters and public health emergencies.

In exchange, Tuvalu gave Australia effective veto power on Tuvalu entering into security agreements with other countries in a deal widely seen as targeting China.

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