Claims by the automotive industry lobby that the price of utes and cars would climb by thousands of dollars because of new vehicle emissions standards have been contradicted by its own briefing paper, which shows the nation’s car fleet becoming much greener over the coming decade, and therefore attracting lower penalties.

Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries chief executive Tony Weber has warned the proposed emissions standard would push up the price of popular models like the Ford Raptor by $6000, and some other models by $25,000, a figure echoed by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

Under the proposed scheme car makers would pay a penalty for selling vehicles that break an emissions standard that will lower annually to deliver a 60 per cent reduction in annual vehicle emissions compared to 2023, but win tradable credits for those cars that come in under the standard.

The FCAI has warned of massive price hikes caused by carmakers passing on what it estimates to be the $29 billion cost of these penalties to consumers, basing its calculations on the current range of models being sold in dealerships.

But an FCAI briefing document presented to members in 2022 predicts the fleet will be far cleaner by then, even if an emissions standard was not introduced.

The Electric Vehicle Council, which lobbies for EVs, has seized upon the document, saying it shows the FCAI is misleading the community and politicians.

“The FCAI has constructed a scenario where the car market doesn’t change at all from 2023 until the end of this decade, and layered exaggerated penalties over the top of that,” said EV Council chief executive Beyhad Jafari.

“What we know from their own documents is that their prediction shows that the market, even without an emissions standard, will change dramatically by the end of this decade. And under that scenario, there will be minimal if any penalties received by the average car.”