“We just haven’t had assurances about 2025.”

Ammunition shortages are already an issue, and will get better only if Europe learns to produce weapons again.

Russia has its own problems with resources and manpower, but it retains a relative size advantage. In a war of attrition, that counts. “While the fat man shrinks, the thin man disappears,” a Ukrainian intelligence official says, citing a well-known local proverb.

Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister and champion of military tech, says the only way forward is self-reliance.

“We have no choice but to show strength. But I’m optimistic. We’ve got a clear advantage in effectiveness and speed.”

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Creative thinking allowed Ukraine to score unlikely victories in the Black Sea, he argues. During 2023, Ukraine sank a fifth of the Russian Black Sea fleet and established a shipping corridor in the face of constant bombardment. The same approach has seen a huge increase in the production of cheap and capable fighting drones.

Ukraine boasts nearly a dozen long-distance models able to strike targets more than 600 kilometres away. One long-range drone manufacturer confidently predicts that 2024 will see the war move deep into central regions of Russia.

“Mr Putin will have some explaining to do to his people,” he says. “Things will not be easy for him domestically.”

Yet, it is Ukraine’s domestic politics rather than Russia’s that are beginning to look more fragile. Two years of unusual political unity have given way to public infighting. President Volodymyr Zelensky has faced down much of the criticism in tough fashion. In early February he removed his popular armed forces commander, Valery Zaluzhny, after relations broke down between the two.

The full effects of that risky decision have yet to be seen. On the eve of his firing, a full 94 per cent of Ukrainians said they trusted their wartime general, compared with 40 per cent for his replacement, Oleksandr Syrsky. A senior government official says he is worried about the capacity of the Ukrainian political system to manage the growing tensions, and says the Kremlin would love to capitalise on them.

“Russia wants to remove Zelensky because there is no one else who can control the situation,” he says.

A difficult point will come in May, the date Zelensky’s five-year presidential term officially ends. Martial law is clear in allowing the president to continue in office until another is elected, with elections also impossible under the same provisions. But the political chatter in Kyiv is all about an upcoming cliff-edge of legitimacy.

Andriy Mahera, a constitutional expert whose decision in 2004 not to ratify a fraudulent vote marked the start of a series of protests known as the Orange Revolution, says the criticisms are legal nonsense; but Zelensky is nonetheless walking a tightrope.

“The president will be in position past the five-year mark only because there is a war on – no more, no less. He needs to understand this, and instead of fighting opponents, try to unite them around him.” So far, big-tent collaboration has not been Zelensky’s style.

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The president can certainly take some comfort in public opinion, which continues to back him, albeit with a downward trajectory. Polling from the Razumkov Centre, a local sociological company, shows trust in him remains at 70 per cent. That is much higher than for parliament and any potential opponent save Zaluzhny.

The public also largely aligns with Zelensky’s uncompromising stance on negotiations with Russia. The Razumkov polling shows just 18 per cent of them would support concessions to Russia even if the West were to cease support completely. A third say Ukraine should continue to fight even if it is left on its own; 22 per cent suggest trying to freeze the conflict without making concessions, with the rest undecided.

The real obstacle to any deal is not so much domestic support as finding a trustworthy negotiating partner.

“For negotiations to work, you need a tango,” the senior government official said. “War is actually quite successful for Putin. What is his reason to stop?”

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A Ukrainian military-intelligence source suggested that current rates of equipment and ammunition use might force both sides to a temporary ceasefire some time next year. But it would be only a pause, he says: there is little confidence in a lasting deal as long as Putin is alive. “We know he hates Ukraine and our freedom. We are a bad example for his society.”

For Manukhina, the suggestion of waiting for a change in the Russian leadership brings her to tears. She says the little people, like her, are being forgotten.

“If we are going to wait until Putin dies, all of our guys will perish. If nothing else is working, we must negotiate.”

© 2024 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved.

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