“This is the most extreme event in 150 years of Japanese climatic history,” he said in a post on X.

It is not just the atmosphere that is cooking.

Sea surface temperatures have been exceptionally high for this time of year, with the average January temperature this year 0.66 degrees above average (and the second highest ever recorded for all months, just 0.01 degrees below the record, set in August 2023).

Some relief might come as the El Nino event – which has driven much of the warm weather – begins to weaken over coming months.

While some global weather agencies indicate that La Nina may return this year, it will be some time before they can definitively say.

Australia’s models don’t yet indicate the La Nina.

At the bottom of the world

The high temperatures have led to a dramatic loss of sea ice in Antarctica, where record low coverage was recorded last year. While some has bounced back, it remains very low.

At the start of this year, there was 6.37 million square kilometres of sea ice – that is the sixth lowest in the satellite record for January 1.

As the summer continued, there was a rapid decline in daily extent led to it ending the month at 2.58 million square kilometres, which is tied second-lowest coverage with 2017.

According to Hare, the heat records being seen fall only into the worst-case scenario models created by scientists to predict the impact of climate change, and it is not yet clear what is causing the temperature.

He believes the El Nino is having marginal impact, and increased moisture thrown in the atmosphere by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcano eruption in 2022 may also be contributing.

Aside from that, Hare says, it is the world’s collective failure to put itself on a pathway to meet Paris climate targets that is the most likely cause.

The coming decades will be hotter, but if that pathway is reached fast, temperatures will plateau and then fall. “I find it very, very worrying,” Hare says.

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