Hosting this week’s ASEAN Special Summit is quite a moment in Australia’s evolving relationship with the 10-nation bloc that collectively represents a somewhat unrealised economic and commercial opportunity despite our cordial 50-year history.
Combined, the ASEAN economies are roughly twice the size of Australia’s. Predominantly they have built their wealth courtesy of the twin engines of high protection and domestic focus and their manufacturing industries are neither dependent nor fuelled by Australian iron and gas.
Australia and ASEAN nations share similar realities in dealing with China. We are both highly reliant on trading and economic ties, yet are concerned by China’s growing geopolitical expansion. Unlike us, however, some ASEAN members assiduously reject choosing sides.
The differences were manifest at the summit opening in Melbourne on Monday when Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong warned South-East Asia’s freedom from domination by any single power was under threat and the rising risk of conflict in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait would continue unless the region adopted new diplomatic and legal safeguards.
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But Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim defended his nation’s ties with China and complained about alleged pressure by the US and its allies on regional nations to take sides in the West’s strategic rivalries with Beijing. “If they have problems with China, they should not impose it upon us. We do not have a problem with China,” he said.
Surprisingly, Anwar told the Herald’s Matthew Knott he was open to the prospect of Australia officially joining ASEAN. Anwar said that as long as countries in the Indo-Pacific remain “neutral” and “non-aligned” when it came to the US and China, “well, I don’t foresee that much of a problem”.
But surely there are doubts about the shelf life of such lingering neutrality. Last August when a Chinese coastguard fired water cannon on a Philippine resupply ship, ASEAN failed to speak up on behalf of its member state, prompting Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to join Australia, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam (another ASEAN member) in supporting continued US engagement to maintain peace, stability and success in the region. Against such breakouts, China can depend on the fealty of other ASEAN members, Laos and Cambodia.
In a different world, Malcolm Turnbull hosted ASEAN leaders in Sydney in 2018, but this week’s ASEAN Special Summit – celebrating the 50th anniversary of Australia’s status as a dialogue partner – coincides with the National People’s Congress in Beijing as China increasingly places limits on foreign investment while it reinstates a centralisation of state power unmatched since the days of Mao Zedong.