“It seems like we’ve come to opposite conclusions … but the agencies are using data that only looks at the short-term effect. So [the] short-term effect is that you get a bare ground, and it’s easier to fight fires for a couple of years after you’ve done the burn. But the long-term effect is that you then have decades of increased fire risk.”

FFMV chief fire officer Chris Hardman said Victoria’s fire agencies used “the best available science” to drive its response to bushfire risks, and welcomed research in this field.

“The balance of Australian and international research strongly supports well-targeted fuel management as an important and effective tool to reduce bushfire risk to people, communities and the environment,” he said.

“While there is some debate within the scientific community regarding the relationship between bushfire and methods of forest management, what is not debated is the overwhelming impact climate change is having on the frequency and intensity of severe weather events and resulting bushfires.”

He said authorities had been hampered by recent rainfall, but also reduced fire risks with mulching, hazardous tree removal and strategic fuel breaks.

Former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner Greg Mullins describes the question of prescribed burns as “a genuinely wicked problem”.

“Climate change is reducing opportunities to burn as fire seasons lengthen and intensify,” Mullins, who has more than 50 years’ experience as a firefighter, said.

“So if it’s not too dry and dangerous to burn, it’s often too wet because of intense rainfall.”

Over the past 50 years, there has been a 40 per cent increase in very high fire danger days.

A NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service spokeswoman said authorities were primarily focused on reducing hazards across 52,000 hectares of land in areas of highest risk, close to homes and infrastructure. The service also has a target of 82,000 hectares of “landscape-scale” burns.

“It has been extremely challenging to meet targets over the past few years due to weather conditions,” she said. “NPWS is on track to meet this target subject to weather conditions in the next few months.

“While it is not a silver bullet in terms of risk mitigation, targeted prescribed burning is a critically important part of an overall fire management strategy.”

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According to data released by the Bureau of Meteorology on Friday, March was a month of extremes. Across Australia, the area-averaged rainfall for March was 86 per cent higher than the 1961-90 average – the third-wettest March since national records began in 1900.

However, rainfall in Tasmania, most of Victoria, south-eastern South Australia, parts of eastern NSW, south-western Western Australia and central eastern Queensland was much lower than average.

Mullins, who also serves on the Climate Council, said climate change was impacting the efficacy of prescribed burning.

“Hazard reduction is effective at reducing fuel levels, but we saw prolific regrowth after three years of rains and fires returned years before we expected,” he said.

“Everyone’s between the devil and the deep blue sea, and the devil’s climate change ... it’s a genuinely wicked problem.”