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Is there any team in the AFL that is currently more confusing than the Western Bulldogs?
Just over two years on from a grand final appearance, Luke Beveridge's side currently sits 11th on the ladder with a 2-3 record following a deflating loss to Essendon in Round 5.
Beveridge is now into his 10th season at the helm of the Bulldogs in a tenure that virtually began with a fairytale run to a drought-breaking premiership in 2016.
One of the hallmarks of the Beveridge era has been the 53-year-old's tendency to make left-field team selections — either playing players out of position or dropping them — and the veteran coach is at it again.
So far in 2024 Beveridge has dropped three All-Australians — Caleb Daniel, Jack Macrae and Bailey Dale — prompting questions over where exactly the Bulldogs stand in the AFL's premiership race.
Many experts believe Beveridge's selections are a sign that the Bulldogs as we know them might be done as one of the AFL's bona-fide premiership contenders. But are they really done with winning?
What's happened since the 2016 premiership?
A proper analysis of the Beveridge era cannot begin without dissecting the 2016 premiership, which still remains one of the most unlikely flag wins in the last three decades.
Of the 22 players that upset Sydney in the 2016 decider, just five remain on the Bulldogs' current list: Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Jason Johannisen, Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniel.
Five more players from the 2016 team remain active at other clubs: Joel Hamling (Sydney), Lachie Hunter (Melbourne), Zaine Cordy (St Kilda), Jake Stringer (Essendon), and Josh Dunkley (Brisbane).
The Bulldogs famously won the premiership from seventh on the ladder, upsetting the sixth-placed Eagles, the third-placed Hawks and the fourth-placed Giants, before toppling the AFL's minor premiers in the grand final.
Since then, Beveridge's charges have finished better than seventh on one occasion, finishing fifth in 2022.
They threatened to mimic the fairytale 2016 run in 2021, once again making the grand final from seventh before being smashed by Melbourne.
Aside from the 2021 finals campaign, the Dogs have been eliminated at the first time of asking on three occasions and missed the finals entirely on three other occasions, the most recent being last year's ninth-placed finish.
It is a poor return by any metric, given the level of star power that the Bulldogs have possessed over the last decade.
Since 2016, when Marcus Bontempelli was the team's sole All-Australian, the Bulldogs have had multiple players in the All-Australian team on four separate occasions.
Bontempelli leads the pack with four All-Australian jackets, followed by Macrae (two) and Dale, Daniel and Tim English, who all have one each.
Where does the current list rank compared to recent premiers?
While there has been significant turnover from the 2016 premiership team, a large portion of the team that played in the 2021 grand final remains on the Bulldogs list.
Of the 23 players selected that day, 15 are still in Bulldogs colours.
The Bulldogs list ranked sixth in terms of average age (24.8) and average games (76.3) coming into this season, per AFL.com.au stats.
It's a list demographic that should see the Bulldogs still well and truly in the premiership hunt.
In terms of average games played, only the 2015 Hawks (third) and the 2022 Cats (first) have won the flag without ranking between fifth and 10th on the average games played ranking, per Draftguru stats.
Beveridge's 2016 Bulldogs were the least experienced premiers in the last decade, ranking 10th in terms of average games played. It's a ranking that makes sense when looking back, with Bontempelli, Macrae, Liberatore, Daniel and Johannisen all aged between 20-24 at the time of the grand final.
Axing the likes of Macrae, Daniel and Dale, all players still in the prime age bracket is risky, but it appears the Bulldogs are attempting to operate on two separate timelines by blooding some youth around its veteran core.
"Even though we're evolving and there's some changes in the personnel at different times, the players themselves have created an internal pressure for spots, and that's all OK if you end up being a formidable team, right now we're not," Beveridge said after the loss to Essendon.
"We need to make sure we do what we can, whether it's the players or our supporting staff, just to make sure that we capitalise on the week-to-week, and we're missing out on some opportunities.
"I understand if people aren't sure about where we sit in the scheme of things, but that's just the reality."
The good news for Bulldogs fans is that other teams have similarly operated on separate timelines in recent years and have enjoyed success.
The common theme? All have been able to welcome a steady stream of high-end talent courtesy of either father-son or academy selections to complement more experienced cores.
Collingwood has been boosted by the arrival of Nick Daicos via the father-son rule, while the Giants and Swans have been blessed by their respective academies yielding the likes of Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, Nick Blakey, Braden Campbell and Tom Green.
The Bulldogs have enjoyed this luxury on both fronts. They were able to take Jamarra Ugle-Hagan first overall in 2020 as a Next Generation Academy selection, and picked Sam Darcy second overall the following year via the father-son rule. Last year's number 15 pick Jordan Croft and Rhylee West are other father-son additions coming through the ranks.
As the Magpies, Swans and Giants have shown through their rapid rises up the ladder, drafting well around father-son and academy selections is essential, and the Bulldogs have also done well in this regard.
The club has virtually hit on every top 20 pick it's had since the 2016 premiership, landing stars such as Tim English (number 19, 2016), Aaron Naughton (number 9, 2017) and Bailey Smith (number 7, 2018) via the draft.
Given the club's successful drafting of late, Beveridge is clearly not afraid to trust the new crop of kids coming through.
"I'll always coach and our coaches and decision-makers will always make decisions for the now, but we need to make sure that we give opportunities to young players that are going to be important players in the future as much as now," he said.
"It is a pretty steep learning curve at this level for guys who haven't played many games, but in no way, shape, or form are we saying that we're doing it for next year or the year after or something like that."
What are the Bulldogs doing differently this year?
The Bulldogs ranked second in clearances in their premiership year in 2016, but then immediately suffered a drop-off the following year, ranking second-last.
However, as Beveridge's on-ball brigade from 2016 has matured, they've gradually become one of the more formidable clearance teams in the competition.
Since 2020, where they ranked ninth in total clearances, the Bulldogs have ranked in the top five every year, per AFL Tables stats.
After ranking fifth last year, the Bulldogs have slipped back down to eighth in total clearances so far this season.
The drop-off was evident on Friday night when the Dogs were beaten 34-28 in clearances and 16-10 out of the middle by a younger Bombers midfield group.
Beveridge's centre bounce midfield of choice has largely been the trio of Bontempelli, Liberatore and Macrae over the last five seasons, but that's changed over the last two years.
The arrival of Adam Treloar via trade has seen a drastic shift in Macrae's role in particular.
Macrae led the Bulldogs midfielders in centre bounces attended just two seasons ago, getting to 64 per cent of them.
Last year that dropped to just 36 per cent, as he was overtaken by Treloar.
So far this year, the left-footer has dropped even further down the pecking order, with last year's number 6 pick Ryley Sanders having attended more centre bounces through five matches (45 to 23), per DFS Australia stats.
Treloar, Bontempelli and Liberatore remain the centre bounce trio of choice for Beveridge.
At 29, it appears unclear whether Macrae is a part of Beveridge's long-term plan, despite being contracted through 2027. Once one of the AFL's most dominant ball-winners, he's likely to have significant currency if made available at the end of the season.
Could the Bulldogs offload him like Collingwood did with Brodie Grundy at the end of 2022 to maintain cap flexibility? It's certainly possible.
The futures of Smith, Dale and Daniel are also well and truly up in the air, meaning we could see a significant shuffling of the deck chairs this summer at the Whitten Oval.
Where to next?
All of this brings Beveridge's future into the spotlight.
While the 2016 premiership has given him significant credits among the club's powerbrokers, they will be aware that he is now the fifth longest-tenured coach in the AFL behind Sydney's John Longmire, Geelong's Chris Scott, Port's Ken Hinkley and West Coast's Adam Simpson.
Beveridge is out of contract at the end of 2025 and has seen significant off-field upheaval around him over the last 18 months.
If the league's recent history is anything to go by, the Bulldogs are every chance to spike back up the ladder in the coming years. Whether Beveridge remains at the helm to see the success is another question.
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