“The decision means Biden has decided to use his only real form of leverage over Bibi – withholding weapons,” said Cliff Kupchan, chair of the Eurasia Group, who had just returned from a trip to the Middle East. “It’s a low point for US-Israel relations, as it begins to put Israeli security in play. Biden had no choice. The war is a drag on his election campaign, on Democratic Party unity and on US standing in the world.”

The administration was hoping the pause would send a quiet message and did not announce it publicly at first, but the Israelis leaked it. In the days since the decision, Israel ordered the evacuation of 110,000 civilians in Rafah, conducted airstrikes against targets on the edges of the city, sent in tanks and seized the crossing with Egypt. Although these moves were characterised as limited and not the beginning of the promised assault, they touched off alarms in the White House.

The Israeli actions, which came in part in response to Hamas rocket attacks that killed four Israeli soldiers last weekend, seem to be intended to keep the pressure on Hamas to agree to a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the release of some of the hostages taken on October 7.

Whether such a deal is possible remains uncertain. CIA director William Burns, who has been deeply involved in the negotiations, met on Wednesday with Netanyahu in Jerusalem even as other officials conferred in Cairo about competing offers from the two sides. Reaching such a deal may be the only way to avoid a more serious rupture between Israel and the Biden administration, analysts said.

“What they’re asking for is for Israel not to go into Rafah in a significant way,” said Elliott Abrams, a Middle East specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations who served in multiple Republican administrations. “Barring a hostage deal, I think the Israelis are going to go into Rafah, and it is going to cause a great deal of tension.”

The relationship between the US and Israel has been a singular one since the Jewish state declared its independence in 1948 and President Harry S. Truman just 11 minutes later made the United States the first nation in the world to recognise it. But the relationship has also long been marked by moments of deep stress.

At first, under both Truman and president Dwight D. Eisenhower, the US refused to sell Israel weapons at all. President John F. Kennedy became the first to open up the arsenal by providing Hawk antiaircraft missiles. President Lyndon B. Johnson expanded ties by sending M-48 tanks, A-4 Skyhawk planes and F-4 Phantom planes.

Presidents have held back aid to Israel before to indicate displeasure or influence policy. President Ronald Reagan more than once delayed shipments of warplanes and other munitions out of dissatisfaction with Israeli intervention in Lebanon. President George H.W. Bush postponed $US10 billion in housing loan guarantees to keep American money from being used to finance settlement construction in the West Bank.

Overall, since World War II, the United States has given more aid to Israel than any other country in the world. As of last year, the US had provided $US158.7 billion to Israel since its founding, the vast bulk of it, or $US124.3 billion, for its military and its missile defences, according to the Congressional Research Service. Under a 10-year memorandum of understanding sealed by President Barack Obama, Washington currently provides $US3.8 billion a year in military aid, not counting the $US15 billion in additional help approved last month by Congress and signed into law by Biden.

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Republicans quickly criticised Biden on Wednesday after Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin publicly confirmed reports of the delayed bomb shipment at a Senate hearing. “This is obscene. It is absurd,” Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina told the defence secretary. “Give Israel what they need to fight the war they can’t afford to lose.”

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the party’s leader in the Senate, said he had called Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, on Wednesday morning “to express my concern to the administration that the delay of shipment of weapons to Israel is just another way of trying to tell an ally how to conduct the war”. He and House Speaker Mike Johnson later sent a letter to Biden protesting against the decision.

On the other hand, Democrats and progressives who have been pressing Biden to limit or cut off arms to curtail Israel’s war said the president’s action was long overdue and still not enough after more than 34,000 have died in Gaza, including both combatants and civilians.

Senator Bernie Sanders, the democratic socialist from Vermont, said Biden’s decision was “absolutely right” but should only be the start. “Our leverage is clear,” he said. “Over the years, the United States has provided tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Israel. We can no longer be complicit in Netanyahu’s horrific war against the Palestinian people.”

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The decision got the attention of Netanyahu and his war cabinet. Shalom Lipner, a longtime adviser to multiple Israeli prime ministers, said it “struck a deep chord of concern within Israel, where people are wondering how limiting Israel’s access to weaponry — a move that is certain to embolden Hamas — might be reconciled with Biden’s oft-repeated ironclad commitment to its security.”

But he added that “it would be to Israel’s strategic detriment for the Netanyahu government to ignore the loud pushback from its main provider of military and diplomatic support”.

The 3500 bombs held back last week include both 2000-pound (900 kilogram) and 500-pound munitions.

The State Department is also still weighing whether to proceed with the delivery of Joint Direct Attack Munition guidance kits that can convert so-called dumb bombs into precision-guided weapons, but there is no imminent shipment at the moment. Moreover, officials said they would still provide “every dollar” of aid authorised in the new congressional package.

Kupchan said that the course of the US-Israeli relationship would turn on what happened next. If Netanyahu defers to Biden’s judgment on Rafah, it may just be a momentary flare-up. But if the two leaders remain at a stand-off, it could lead to a broader cutoff of weapons, which would have a more lasting effect.

“The foundation of US-Israel relations is so strong that it won’t be significantly damaged by this move,” Kupchan said. “Further withholdings, however, while quite unlikely, would be a different story.”

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.