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If the US election was today, Donald Trump would win. This week’s New York Times-Siena poll confirms trends reported over the past several months: Trump is leading President Joe Biden in almost all the key swing states that will determine the election – the same states that played that decisive role in 2016 for Trump over Hillary Clinton, and in 2020 for Biden’s making Trump a one-term president.
Trump leads Biden even in Pennsylvania – the state Biden has visited more than any other in this campaign – by three points, and in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia by margins of seven to 12 points. Biden holds a two-point lead in Wisconsin.
Former president Donald Trump walks to the courtroom following a break in his trial at Manhattan criminal court on May 9.Credit: AP
If Trump carries Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, and either Michigan or Pennsylvania, he will win the Electoral College and the presidency.
Like the last New York Times-Siena poll in November, which showed Biden trailing in several swing states, this again rocked Washington’s political class, feeding uncertainty and fear among Democrats that Biden will lose, notwithstanding Trump’s sensational trial in Manhattan and his descent into even more wild and extreme behaviour.
Although Biden is effectively tied with Trump nationally, the state of the race is quite clear.
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Trump’s base is fully intact. He crushed his opponents in the Republican primaries – from Florida governor Ron DeSantis to Nikki Haley, Trump’s one-time UN Ambassador – with 70 to 80 per cent of Republican voters locked in. But Biden is haemorrhaging support – most especially from young voters, black men, and Hispanic voters. He is tied with voters under 30 and Hispanic voters – which he carried by huge margins four years ago. Some polls show double-digit erosion of black voters for Biden.
The biggest factor affecting Biden is simply his age. Eighty per cent of voters believe he is too old to serve a second term, while only 55 per cent see Trump the same way. It is a huge speed bump for a fellow who is 81.
Biden is adamant that he will win. He told donors last week: “While the press doesn’t write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favour, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump.”