The federal government says Australia's intake of migrants will fall sharply — halving in two years — as it overhauls the migration system and moves to reduce pressures caused by population growth.

But experts say some of this expected drop in migration numbers is outside the government's control, and that it remains unclear whether its efforts to tighten temporary migration will impact numbers.

Budget papers showed net migration will more than halve from 528,000 to 260,000 between 2022-23 and 2024-25.

The government also announced measures aiming to draw highly skilled migrants to Australia, as it moves to overhaul the migration system.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has linked the fall in the migration intake to measures aiming to contain inflation, saying population growth must be managed to moderate cost of living increases.

Some of the sharp drop in intake has been attributed to government policies.

"Government actions are estimated to reduce net overseas migration by 110,000 people over the forward estimates," the budget papers said.

The government said the permanent migration intake would also decrease from 190,000 this financial year to 185,000 in 2024-25.

More than 130,000 of those places will be allocated to the skill stream to "help address Australia's long-term skill needs" while the government will invest more than $18 million to "further reform" Australia's immigration system to "restore its integrity".

The government is also introducing a new ballot for the work and holiday visa program for applicants from China, Vietnam and India — at a cost of $25 for applicants — as it tries to manage demand.

A new National Innovation visa will also be established to replace the current Global Talent visa from later this year, and will target "exceptionally talented migrants who would drive growth in sectors of national importance".

'Managing the pressures'

In a post-budget address on Wednesday, Mr Chalmers framed government efforts to manage population growth as a measure against inflation.

He said there was "a fairly substantial moderation in migration built into the budget" after a post-COVID spike driven by students and "long-term tourists".

"That meant the numbers were a bit higher and now they're moderating to more normal levels," Dr Chalmers said.

"I think most people would recognise that migration has got an important role to play in our economy but it needs to be well-managed and we need to make sure that we can manage the pressures."

Mr Chalmers said measures to increase housing and infrastructure, the end of the COVID-19 Pandemic event visa, and a reduction in international student numbers would reduce pressures caused by population growth.

"We're seeing a substantial moderation in inflation in the forecasts and in the last couple of years as well, and that is largely because of how we're managing the budget, but it will also be increasingly about how we're managing the population," he said.

Migration overhaul

The budget revealed a drop in Australia's migration intake after the government announced it would reform the migration system, including changes tightening rules for international students. 

However, some say that much of the expected fall in net migration is a result of factors outside the government's control.

Australian National University demographer Liz Allen said the government was using "smoke and mirrors" to claim credit for the expected decline.

She said the numbers reflected a rebound in the outflow of international students from Australia, balancing the inflow of new students, after the pandemic.

"We've seen a raft of changes that have increased the integrity of the migration scheme, with particular focus on international students," she said.

"But that has not and will not result in a decline of net overseas migration in real terms."

ANU migration expert Alan Gamlen said the recent surge in net overseas migration had been a result of fewer temporary migrants departing Australia.

"Arrivals are only a bit above their long-term trend, not even enough to change the long-term average," he said.

Some were still in the country on COVID-19 Pandemic event visas, and as these expired, the outflow of students would increase, Dr Gamlen said.

University of Sydney global migration expert Anna Boucher said the budget showed the government wanted to reduce the migration intake.

The government was moving to reduce migration numbers by extending controls in permanent migration programs to parts of temporary migration including student migration, and working and holiday visas.

Other factors, including court delays and backlogs in court cases, can influence net overseas migration, she said.

"That's the question, whether they'll be able to achieve it, because there's a lot of variables that can influence net overseas migration."

Dr Boucher said the fall in migration would also influence how the country achieves economic growth.

"So it's going to put more pressure on seeking increases in gross domestic product through other mechanisms, than merely population growth, which could be very beneficial in the long term for Australia.

"But it's going to be challenging because we've relied on high population growth for a long time, including under the Coalition."

Call for more support

The Settlement Council of Australia (SCOA), which represents organisations that support new migrants and refugees, is calling for more help for skilled migrants to establish themselves in Australia.

SCOA chief executive Sandra Elhelw said migration was "more than just a number" and the quality of the settlement experience was "often overlooked" in the migration system.

She said migrants would contribute economically to Australia only if there was enough support for them.

"The more welcoming and supportive we are of migrants when they arrive, the quicker they will start filling critical shortages, paying tax, and increasing our shared quality of life," Ms Elhelw said.

"Australia lags behind countries such as Canada who have much more comprehensive services available to all permanent residents. This includes employment-related services, language training, and support to adjust to Canadian life and systems."